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Also traded in: Germany, Mexico

GuruFocus Financial Strength Rank measures how strong a company’s financial situation is. It is based on these factors

1. The debt burden that the company has as measured by its Interest coverage (current year).
2. Debt to revenue ratio. The lower, the better
3. Altman Z-score.

A company ranks high with financial strength is likely to withstand any business slowdowns and recessions.

Financial Strength : 9/10

vs
industry
vs
history
Cash-to-Debt No Debt
NYSE:CMG's Cash-to-Debt is ranked higher than
99% of the 324 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 0.64 vs. NYSE:CMG: No Debt )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Cash-to-Debt only.
NYSE:CMG' s Cash-to-Debt Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.42  Med: 3420.26 Max: No Debt
Current: No Debt
Equity-to-Asset 0.68
NYSE:CMG's Equity-to-Asset is ranked higher than
78% of the 322 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 0.50 vs. NYSE:CMG: 0.68 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Equity-to-Asset only.
NYSE:CMG' s Equity-to-Asset Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.68  Med: 0.77 Max: 0.82
Current: 0.68
0.68
0.82
Interest Coverage No Debt
NYSE:CMG's Interest Coverage is ranked higher than
99% of the 275 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 23.99 vs. NYSE:CMG: No Debt )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Interest Coverage only.
NYSE:CMG' s Interest Coverage Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 119.04  Med: 5535 Max: No Debt
Current: No Debt
Piotroski F-Score: 7
Altman Z-Score: 14.98
Beneish M-Score: -3.54
WACC vs ROIC
2.91%
8.65%
WACC
ROIC
GuruFocus Profitability Rank ranks how profitable a company is and how likely the company’s business will stay that way. It is based on these factors:

1. Operating Margin
2. Trend of the Operating Margin (5-year average). The company with an uptrend profit margin has a higher rank.
••3. Consistency of the profitability
4. Piotroski F-Score
5. Predictability Rank•

The maximum rank is 10. A rank of 7 or higher means a higher profitability and may stay that way. A rank of 3 or lower indicates that the company has had trouble to make a profit.

Profitability Rank is not directly related to the Financial Strength Rank. But if a company is consistently profitable, its financial strength will be stronger.

Profitability & Growth : 8/10

vs
industry
vs
history
Operating Margin % 3.73
NYSE:CMG's Operating Margin % is ranked lower than
58% of the 324 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 5.32 vs. NYSE:CMG: 3.73 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Operating Margin % only.
NYSE:CMG' s Operating Margin % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.89  Med: 15.57 Max: 17.3
Current: 3.73
0.89
17.3
Net Margin % 2.31
NYSE:CMG's Net Margin % is ranked lower than
56% of the 324 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 3.16 vs. NYSE:CMG: 2.31 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Net Margin % only.
NYSE:CMG' s Net Margin % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.59  Med: 9.61 Max: 10.84
Current: 2.31
0.59
10.84
ROE % 6.56
NYSE:CMG's ROE % is ranked lower than
56% of the 305 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 8.48 vs. NYSE:CMG: 6.56 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful ROE % only.
NYSE:CMG' s ROE % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.3  Med: 23.07 Max: 25.09
Current: 6.56
1.3
25.09
ROA % 4.59
NYSE:CMG's ROA % is ranked higher than
55% of the 325 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 3.96 vs. NYSE:CMG: 4.59 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful ROA % only.
NYSE:CMG' s ROA % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.97  Med: 17.03 Max: 19.63
Current: 4.59
0.97
19.63
ROC (Joel Greenblatt) % 12.03
NYSE:CMG's ROC (Joel Greenblatt) % is ranked lower than
60% of the 322 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 18.32 vs. NYSE:CMG: 12.03 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful ROC (Joel Greenblatt) % only.
NYSE:CMG' s ROC (Joel Greenblatt) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 2.74  Med: 46.57 Max: 68.67
Current: 12.03
2.74
68.67
3-Year Revenue Growth Rate 8.50
NYSE:CMG's 3-Year Revenue Growth Rate is ranked higher than
69% of the 252 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 3.70 vs. NYSE:CMG: 8.50 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful 3-Year Revenue Growth Rate only.
NYSE:CMG' s 3-Year Revenue Growth Rate Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 8.5  Med: 21.1 Max: 32.3
Current: 8.5
8.5
32.3
3-Year EBITDA Growth Rate -32.90
NYSE:CMG's 3-Year EBITDA Growth Rate is ranked lower than
95% of the 226 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 5.60 vs. NYSE:CMG: -32.90 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful 3-Year EBITDA Growth Rate only.
NYSE:CMG' s 3-Year EBITDA Growth Rate Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -32.9  Med: 33.3 Max: 112.3
Current: -32.9
-32.9
112.3
3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate -58.10
NYSE:CMG's 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate is ranked lower than
96% of the 192 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 8.50 vs. NYSE:CMG: -58.10 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate only.
NYSE:CMG' s 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -58.1  Med: 29.15 Max: 107
Current: -58.1
-58.1
107
GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc $NYSE:CMG.
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» NYSE:CMG's 30-Y Financials

Financials (Next Earnings Date: 2017-07-25 Est.)


Revenue & Net Income
Cash & Debt
Operating Cash Flow & Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow & Net Income

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Business Description

Industry: Restaurants » Restaurants    NAICS: 722513    SIC: 5812
Compare:NYSE:QSR, NYSE:DRI, NYSE:YUMC, NYSE:DPZ, NYSE:ARMK, OTCPK:WTBCY, NAS:PNRA, NAS:DNKN, OTCPK:JBFCF, NAS:CBRL, NAS:WEN, OTCPK:DMZPY, NAS:TXRH, OTCPK:ALSSF, OTCPK:ATGSY, NAS:JACK, OTCPK:SKLYF, OTCPK:GKNGY, NAS:PZZA, NAS:PLAY » details
Traded in other countries:C9F.Germany, CMG.Mexico,
Headquarter Location:USA
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc together with its subsidiaries operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which serves a menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads, made using fresh ingredients.

Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest player in the $10 billion-plus domestic fast-casual Mexican restaurant category. Its menu includes burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads, which are made from higher-quality ingredients than at quick-service restaurants. Because customers can choose from four different meats, two types of beans, and an array of extras, more than 65,000 menu combinations are possible. As of December, the firm operated 2,300 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.

Guru Investment Theses on Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Bill Ackman Comments on Chipotle - May 12, 2017

Since Steve Ells returned to the role of sole CEO in December of last year, Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) has implemented significant organizational and operational changes predominantly aimed at elevating the guest experience. This renewed focus on delivering a great guest experience has re-energized and motivated the organization, leading to better customer service scores, lower restaurant manager turnover, and improvements in many other key performance metrics.

We saw some early indication of these improvements when Chipotle reported first quarter 2017 results with same-store sales increasing 17.8% year-over-year. This was the first quarter in which Chipotle fully lapped sales declines relating to food safety issues that began in late 2015. On a two-year cumulative basis that incorporates the impact of these declines as well as the ongoing recovery, same-store sales improved throughout the quarter from a 21% decline in January to a 16% decline in March. Online sales in the quarter increased significantly over the prior year.

As part of the company’s mission to make better food made from whole, unprocessed ingredients accessible to everyone, Chipotle announced in late March that it is the only national restaurant chain with no added colors, flavors or preservatives in any of the ingredients it uses to prepare its delicious food. This milestone achievement was made possible by the successful completion of a multi-year initiative to remove additives from its tortillas. Today, the whole Chipotle menu is prepared with just 51 recognizable, high-quality ingredients that you can find at grocery stores or farmers markets. In support of this important achievement, the company recently launched its largest advertising campaign to date, entitled “As Real as it Gets.”

In December of last year, four new independent directors joined Chipotle’s board of directors, including investment team partner Ali Namvar and Pershing Square advisory board member Matt Paull. The refreshed board is working well together. While the timing and pace of Chipotle’s full recovery from its 2015 food safety incidents remains difficult to predict, we are optimistic about the initiatives that Chipotle’s executive team has put in place to enhance the guest experience, differentiate the brand, increase sales through opportunities like mobile ordering and catering, and improve restaurant margins, over the long-term.



From Bill Ackman (Trades, Portfolio)'s first quarter 2017 shareholder letter.


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Bill Ackman Comments on Chipotle Mexican Grill - May 08, 2017

On September 6, 2016, we announced a 9.9% stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) which we purchased at an average price of $405 per share. Chipotle has built a superb brand pioneering the “fast casual” restaurant industry with the success of its outstanding product offering, unique culture, and powerful economic model. We have followed the business for years, noting how it has disrupted the fast food industry with its high quality, delicious and customizable hot meals that are prepared quickly and sold at affordable prices. The company has been significantly negatively impacted by food safety issues beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015 which caused a peak decline in average unit sales of 36%. In response, the company has implemented enhanced food safety protocols over the past year, and worked to win back lost customers. While traffic and sales have begun to recover, average unit volumes were still 19% below peak levels as of the fourth quarter of 2016.

We have always believed that a good time to buy a great business is when it is in temporary trouble. While Chipotle’s reputation has been bruised, we think that with the passage of time and improved operations, marketing, technology, and governance initiatives, the business will not only recover but become much stronger. Chipotle’s sales recovery will be neither smooth nor predictable over the next few quarters; yet, we believe that all of the key drivers of Chipotle’s powerful economic moat and long-term success remain intact. These drivers include:

  1. A strong and relevant brand built by visionary leadership;

  2. A differentiated product offering with a highly attractive value proposition;

  3. Substantial scale in the fast casual industry and first-mover advantage in real estate;

  4. Strong unit economics and extremely high returns on capital, driven by a well-honed model that facilitates best-in-class throughput; and

  5. Enormous growth opportunities including new units and operating enhancements such as mobile ordering and catering.

Strong Brand

The Chipotle brand was developed by founder Steve Ells with the philosophy that food served fast does not have to be a traditional “fast-food” experience. This vision later evolved into an ambition to change the way the world thinks about and eats fast food. Chipotle’s authentic brand developed a loyal following, which allowed the company to grow from one restaurant to more than 2,200 relying primarily on customer word of mouth, supplemented by non-traditional marketing techniques including digital and social media, owned content, and local events. Today, we believe that Chipotle is one of the most compelling and authentic large-scale food brands in the U.S.

Differentiated Product Offering

Chipotle’s product offering is differentiated by the fact that it successfully competes in all of the desirable attributes of out-of-home fast food. As part of our research, we compared Chipotle’s customer value proposition to those of fast casual, quick service, and casual dining competitors across six key metrics: food quality, taste, in-store experience, customization ability, speed, and value. We believe Chipotle’s food quality is superlative given the focus on cooking from scratch with the best available and simplest ingredients. Chipotle’s “burrito line” service format engages customers from the moment they walk in the door, allows exact customization of each order to accommodate individual preferences, and facilitates the fastest throughput in the industry. The product price point offers outstanding value given the quality and quantity of food served. While some other concepts can successfully compete on one or more of these attributes, we believe that few are able to replicate the Chipotle offering at comparable price points at scale.

Enormous Growth Opportunity

Prior to the recent food safety issues, Chipotle’s average unit volumes were approximately $2.5 million, among the highest in the industry, despite only serving two day-parts, and with limited store hours, i.e., 11 versus as much as 24 hours for other fast food competitors. We believe that initiatives such as mobile and digital ordering as well as catering will drive an accelerated rate of same-store sales growth for the foreseeable future, incremental to the impact of recovering lost customers. Returns on capital for new units remain extremely compelling even at today’s lower sales levels. Management believes that the U.S. can ultimately support more than double the current store base of approximately 2,200.

Food Safety

We have researched the initiatives that Chipotle has taken to enhance its food safety policies and procedures. While food safety risk can never be completely eliminated in any restaurant, we believe the company has done an excellent job of significantly reducing the risk of another incident while maintaining the quality and taste of its food.

Chipotle has a number of other attractive attributes which include limited global macroeconomic sensitivity and foreign currency exposure, a simple business model with limited non-GAAP earnings adjustments, a high effective tax rate of nearly 40% (which means the company will be a big beneficiary in the event of U.S. corporate tax reform), and an unlevered balance sheet with a strong net cash position.

Management and Board Developments

On December 12, 2016, Chipotle named Steve Ells sole CEO concurrent with the resignation of former co-CEO Monty Moran. In conjunction with this leadership change, Chipotle announced a renewed focus on delivering an excellent guest experience and removing unnecessary complexity from restaurant operations. The company also announced an expanded company mission to “ensure that better food, prepared from whole, unprocessed ingredients is accessible to everyone.”

On December 16, 2016, Chipotle announced a board refresh in which four new directors were named including Pershing Square partner and investment team member Ali Namvar and Pershing Square advisory board member and former McDonald’s CFO Matthew Paull. On March 17, 2017, the company announced that four incumbent directors will not stand for election at the upcoming annual meeting. The new board will have eight members including the four recent appointees.

Chipotle’s total shareholder return was -6.3% from the inception of the position in August through year-end 2016.

From 2016 annual letter to shareholders of Pershing Square by Bill Ackman (Trades, Portfolio).

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Bill Ackman Comments on Chipotle Mexican Grill - Mar 30, 2017

On September 6, 2016, we announced a 9.9% stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) which we purchased at an average price of $405 per share. Chipotle has built a superb brand pioneering the “fast casual” restaurant industry with the success of its outstanding product offering, unique culture, and powerful economic model. We have followed the business for years, noting how it has disrupted the fast food industry with its high quality, delicious and customizable hot meals that are prepared quickly and sold at affordable prices. The company has been significantly negatively impacted by food safety issues beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015 which caused a peak decline in average unit sales of 36%. In response, the company has implemented enhanced food safety protocols over the past year, and worked to win back lost customers. While traffic and sales have begun to recover, average unit volumes were still 19% below peak levels as of the fourth quarter of 2016.



We have always believed that a good time to buy a great business is when it is in temporary trouble. While Chipotle’s reputation has been bruised, we think that with the passage of time and improved operations, marketing, technology, and governance initiatives, the business will not only recover but become much stronger. Chipotle’s sales recovery will be neither smooth nor predictable over the next few quarters; yet, we believe that all of the key drivers of Chipotle’s powerful economic moat and long-term success remain intact. These drivers include:



  1. A strong and relevant brand built by visionary leadership;

  2. A differentiated product offering with a highly attractive value proposition;

  3. Substantial scale in the fast casual industry and first-mover advantage in real estate;

  4. Strong unit economics and extremely high returns on capital, driven by a well-honed model that facilitates best-in-class throughput; and

  5. Enormous growth opportunities including new units and operating enhancements such as mobile ordering and catering.

Strong Brand



The Chipotle brand was developed by founder Steve Ells with the philosophy that food served fast does not have to be a traditional “fast-food” experience. This vision later evolved into an ambition to change the way the world thinks about and eats fast food. Chipotle’s authentic brand developed a loyal following, which allowed the company to grow from one restaurant to more than 2,200 relying primarily on customer word of mouth, supplemented by non-traditional marketing techniques including digital and social media, owned content, and local events. Today, we believe that Chipotle is one of the most compelling and authentic large-scale food brands in the U.S.



Differentiated Product Offering



Chipotle’s product offering is differentiated by the fact that it successfully competes in all of the desirable attributes of out-of-home fast food. As part of our research, we compared Chipotle’s customer value proposition to those of fast casual, quick service, and casual dining competitors across six key metrics: food quality, taste, in-store experience, customization ability, speed, and value. We believe Chipotle’s food quality is superlative given the focus on cooking from scratch with the best available and simplest ingredients. Chipotle’s “burrito line” service format engages customers from the moment they walk in the door, allows exact customization of each order to accommodate individual preferences, and facilitates the fastest throughput in the industry. The product price point offers outstanding value given the quality and quantity of food served. While some other concepts can successfully compete on one or more of these attributes, we believe that few are able to replicate the Chipotle offering at comparable price points at scale.



Enormous Growth Opportunity



Prior to the recent food safety issues, Chipotle’s average unit volumes were approximately $2.5 million, among the highest in the industry, despite only serving two day-parts, and with limited store hours, i.e., 11 versus as much as 24 hours for other fast food competitors. We believe that initiatives such as mobile and digital ordering as well as catering will drive an accelerated rate of same-store sales growth for the foreseeable future, incremental to the impact of recovering lost customers. Returns on capital for new units remain extremely compelling even at today’s lower sales levels. Management believes that the U.S. can ultimately support more than double the current store base of approximately 2,200.



Food Safety



We have researched the initiatives that Chipotle has taken to enhance its food safety policies and procedures. While food safety risk can never be completely eliminated in any restaurant, we believe the company has done an excellent job of significantly reducing the risk of another incident while maintaining the quality and taste of its food.



Chipotle has a number of other attractive attributes which include limited global macroeconomic sensitivity and foreign currency exposure, a simple business model with limited non-GAAP earnings adjustments, a high effective tax rate of nearly 40% (which means the company will be a big beneficiary in the event of U.S. corporate tax reform), and an unlevered balance sheet with a strong net cash position.



Management and Board Developments



On December 12, 2016, Chipotle named Steve Ells sole CEO concurrent with the resignation of former co-CEO Monty Moran. In conjunction with this leadership change, Chipotle announced a renewed focus on delivering an excellent guest experience and removing unnecessary complexity from restaurant operations. The company also announced an expanded company mission to “ensure that better food, prepared from whole, unprocessed ingredients is accessible to everyone.”



On December 16, 2016, Chipotle announced a board refresh in which four new directors were named including Pershing Square partner and investment team member Ali Namvar and Pershing Square advisory board member and former McDonald’s CFO Matthew Paull. On March 17, 2017, the company announced that four incumbent directors will not stand for election at the upcoming annual meeting. The new board will have eight members including the four recent appointees.



Chipotle’s total shareholder return was -6.3% from the inception of the position in August through year-end 2016.






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Ruane Cunniff Comments on Chipotle - Feb 07, 2017

Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) has been a weak performer, down 13% since purchase through the end of 2016. We knew Chipotle faced a long road to recovery after several outbreaks of food-borne illnesses frightened customers away, but we were attracted by the enormous potential of the business, which could grow for many years and generate high returns if the executive team manages the recovery adeptly. Chipotle is making changes to management and its board of directors, including adding a director who played a key role in the turnaround at McDonald’s a decade ago. Recently reported sales figures for December showed encouraging gains in customer traffic, but we are watching carefully, as the pace of recovery thus far has fallen short of our initial expectations.

From Ruane Cunniff (Trades, Portfolio)'s Sequoia Fund 4th quarter shareholder letter.


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Bill Ackman Comments on Chipotle Mexican Grill - Dec 09, 2016

On September 6th, we announced a 9.9% stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) which we purchased at an average price of $405 per share. Chipotle has built a superb brand pioneering the “fast casual” restaurant industry with the success of its outstanding product offering, unique culture and powerful economic model. We have followed the business for years, noting how it has disrupted the fast food industry with its high quality, delicious and customizable hot meals that are prepared quickly and sold at affordable prices. The company has been significantly negatively impacted by food safety issues beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015 which caused a peak decline in average unit sales of 36%. In response, the company has implemented best-in-class food safety protocols over the past year, and worked to win back lost customers. While traffic and sales have begun to recover, average unit volumes are still 19% below peak levels.

We have always believed that a good time to buy a great business is when it is in temporary trouble. While Chipotle’s reputation has been bruised, we think that with the passage of time and improved marketing, technology and governance initiatives, the business will not only recover but become much stronger. Chipotle’s sales recovery will be neither smooth nor predictable over the next few quarters; yet, we believe that all of the key drivers of Chipotle’s powerful economic moat and long-term success remain intact. These drivers include:

  1. A strong and relevant brand built by visionary leadership

  2. A differentiated product offering with a highly attractive value proposition

  3. Substantial scale in the fast casual industry and first-mover advantage in real estate

  4. Strong unit economics and extremely high returns on capital, driven by a well-honed model that facilitates best-in-class throughput

  5. Enormous growth opportunities including new units and operating enhancements such as mobile ordering and catering

Strong Brand

The Chipotle brand was developed by founder Steve Ells with the philosophy that food served fast does not have to be a traditional “fast-food” experience. This vision later evolved into an ambition to change the way the world thinks about and eats fast food. Chipotle’s authentic brand developed a loyal following, which allowed the company to grow from one restaurant to more than 2,100 relying primarily on customer word of mouth, supplemented by non-traditional marketing techniques including digital and social media, owned content, and local events. Today, we believe that Chipotle is one of the most compelling and authentic large-scale food brands in the U.S.

Differentiated Product Offering

Chipotle’s product offering is differentiated by the fact that it successfully competes in all the desirable attributes of out-of-home fast food. As part of our research, we compared Chipotle’s customer value proposition to those of fast casual, quick service, and casual dining competitors across six key metrics: food quality, taste, in-store experience, customization ability, speed, and value. We believe Chipotle’s food quality is superlative given the focus on cooking from scratch with the best available ingredients. Chipotle’s “burrito line” service format engages customers from the moment they walk in the door, allows exact customization of each order to accommodate individual preferences, and facilitates the fastest throughput in the industry. The product price point offers outstanding value given the quality and quantity of food served. While some other concepts can successfully compete on one or more of these attributes, we believe that few are able to replicate the Chipotle offering at comparable price points at scale.

Enormous Growth Opportunity

Prior to the recent food safety issues, Chipotle’s average unit volumes were approximately $2.5 million, nearly the highest in the industry, despite only serving two day-parts, and with limited store hours, i.e., 11 versus as much as 24 hours for other fast food competitors. We believe that initiatives such as mobile and digital ordering, loyalty program development, catering, and menu innovation including dessert will drive an accelerated rate of same-store sales growth for the foreseeable future, incremental to the impact of recovering lost customers. Returns on capital for new units remain extremely compelling even at today’s lower sales levels. We believe that the U.S. can support about 3,000 additional Chipotle restaurants, a total of 5,000 units representing 2.3 times the current store base.

Food Safety

We have researched the initiatives that Chipotle has taken to address food safety. While food safety risk can never be completely eliminated in any restaurant, we think the company has done an excellent job of significantly reducing the risk of another incident while maintaining the freshness and taste of its food.

Chipotle has a number of other attractive attributes which include limited global macroeconomic sensitivity and foreign currency exposure, a simple business model with limited non-GAAP earnings adjustments, a high effective tax rate of nearly 40% (which means the company will be a big beneficiary of lower U.S. tax rates if implemented by the Trump administration) and an unlevered balance sheet with a strong net cash position.

Valuation

Given Chipotle’s depressed near-term earnings due to the recent decline in sales and its detrimental impact on operating margins, we do not believe it is appropriate to value Chipotle using a multiple of next year’s earnings based on comparables or estimated growth rates. To estimate the intrinsic value of Chipotle shares, we have valued the discounted cash flows of the business over its life using reasonable assumptions. In our base case, we have assumed a long-term restaurant count of 5,000 units, some recovery of lost customers over the next several years, and moderate same-store sales growth over the long-term driven by the impact of new technology initiatives (like mobile, online ordering and loyalty) and day-part extension initiatives (like catering). We conservatively have assumed that profit margins will be at a discount to peak levels reflecting the cost of new food safety procedures as well as increased investments, offset over time by thoughtful management of overhead costs and increased operating leverage.

From Bill Ackman (Trades, Portfolio)'s Pershing Square third-quarter shareholder letter.

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Ruane Cunniff Comments on Chipotle Mexican Grill - Jul 13, 2016

In the latter half of 2015, a series of pathogen outbreaks at Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) caused a precipitous drop in traffic at the Mexican-themed restaurant chain. The ensuing negative publicity caused Chipotle’s stock to drop into the low $400 range from a high of $757 per share. Prior to the outbreaks, Chipotle was one of the most successful restaurant concepts of the past thirty years. CEO Steve Ells, a classically trained chef, helped pioneer the concept of high-quality food made from fresh ingredients in a fast casual environment. Chipotle’s high quality product, simple menu, and efficient service combined to make its restaurants extraordinarily profitable, and this in turn has allowed Chipotle to expand its footprint at a rapid pace without resorting to franchising or borrowing money.

In the wake of the pathogen outbreaks we contacted a number of food safety experts to verify that Chipotle management had established industry leading food safety practices in all of its stores. Wereviewed the history of outbreaks at public and private restaurant chains and tallied the long term impact each outbreak had on each chain’s franchise value. Most importantly, we held conversations with dozens of industry veterans to develop a timeline for Chipotle’s recovery. While we expect Chipotle to suffer through a slow and bumpy recovery, we believe the company has an opportunity to more than double its U.S. store base over time at terrific unit economics.

From Ruane Cunniff (Trades, Portfolio)'s Sequoia Fund second quarter 2016 shareholder letter.

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Bill Ackman Comments on Chipotle Guru stock highlight
Since Steve Ells returned to the role of sole CEO in December of last year, Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) has implemented significant organizational and operational changes predominantly aimed at elevating the guest experience. This renewed focus on delivering a great guest experience has re-energized and motivated the organization, leading to better customer service scores, lower restaurant manager turnover, and improvements in many other key performance metrics. Read more...
Bill Ackman Comments on Chipotle Mexican Grill Guru stock highlight
On September 6, 2016, we announced a 9.9% stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) which we purchased at an average price of $405 per share. Chipotle has built a superb brand pioneering the “fast casual” restaurant industry with the success of its outstanding product offering, unique culture, and powerful economic model. We have followed the business for years, noting how it has disrupted the fast food industry with its high quality, delicious and customizable hot meals that are prepared quickly and sold at affordable prices. The company has been significantly negatively impacted by food safety issues beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015 which caused a peak decline in average unit sales of 36%. In response, the company has implemented enhanced food safety protocols over the past year, and worked to win back lost customers. While traffic and sales have begun to recover, average unit volumes were still 19% below peak levels as of the fourth quarter of 2016. Read more...
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CHIPOTLE INVESTIGATION INITIATED BY FORMER LOUISIANA ATTORNEY GENERAL: Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC Investigates the Officers and Directors of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. - CMG
Bill Ackman Comments on Chipotle Mexican Grill Guru stock highlight
On September 6, 2016, we announced a 9.9% stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) which we purchased at an average price of $405 per share. Chipotle has built a superb brand pioneering the “fast casual” restaurant industry with the success of its outstanding product offering, unique culture, and powerful economic model. We have followed the business for years, noting how it has disrupted the fast food industry with its high quality, delicious and customizable hot meals that are prepared quickly and sold at affordable prices. The company has been significantly negatively impacted by food safety issues beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015 which caused a peak decline in average unit sales of 36%. In response, the company has implemented enhanced food safety protocols over the past year, and worked to win back lost customers. While traffic and sales have begun to recover, average unit volumes were still 19% below peak levels as of the fourth quarter of 2016. Read more...
Bill Ackman Has Had Enough Precipitous Declines for One Stock, Sells Valeant Pershing Square lets go of 18 million Valeant shares
After preparing everyone for a different sell by filing a prospectus to unload Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) last week, Bill Ackman (Trades, Portfolio) exited his entire stake in Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:VRX), a stock that has haunted his returns and contributed to the worst year in his fund’s history. Read more...
How to Get the Most Out of the Time You Spend Thinking About Stocks Cut all the busy work out of your schedule, make sure you are always 100% focused on learning about a specific stock or a specific industry, and don't waste time on general business news
Someone emailed me this question: Read more...
Bill Ackman Expands Chipotle Position, Cuts Zoetis Activist investor trims 3 positions in 4th quarter
Activist investor Bill Ackman (Trades, Portfolio), founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, buys the common stock of companies and pushes for changes so that the market can realize the values of these companies. Like fellow activist investor Carl Icahn (Trades, Portfolio), Ackman buys out-of-favor companies at a discount and sells them when the companies reach their appraised value. Read more...
Ruane Cunniff Comments on Chipotle Guru stock highlight
Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) has been a weak performer, down 13% since purchase through the end of 2016. We knew Chipotle faced a long road to recovery after several outbreaks of food-borne illnesses frightened customers away, but we were attracted by the enormous potential of the business, which could grow for many years and generate high returns if the executive team manages the recovery adeptly. Chipotle is making changes to management and its board of directors, including adding a director who played a key role in the turnaround at McDonald’s a decade ago. Recently reported sales figures for December showed encouraging gains in customer traffic, but we are watching carefully, as the pace of recovery thus far has fallen short of our initial expectations. Read more...

Ratios

vs
industry
vs
history
PE Ratio 127.77
CMG's PE Ratio is ranked lower than
94% of the 235 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 25.38 vs. CMG: 127.77 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful PE Ratio only.
CMG' s PE Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 16.51  Med: 45.05 Max: 534.51
Current: 127.77
16.51
534.51
Forward PE Ratio 50.76
CMG's Forward PE Ratio is ranked lower than
95% of the 64 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 20.33 vs. CMG: 50.76 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Forward PE Ratio only.
N/A
PE Ratio without NRI 127.77
CMG's PE Ratio without NRI is ranked lower than
94% of the 237 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 24.78 vs. CMG: 127.77 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful PE Ratio without NRI only.
CMG' s PE Ratio without NRI Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 16.51  Med: 45.05 Max: 534.51
Current: 127.77
16.51
534.51
Price-to-Owner-Earnings 77.31
CMG's Price-to-Owner-Earnings is ranked lower than
90% of the 136 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 24.86 vs. CMG: 77.31 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Owner-Earnings only.
CMG' s Price-to-Owner-Earnings Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 18.21  Med: 40.01 Max: 159.5
Current: 77.31
18.21
159.5
PB Ratio 8.54
CMG's PB Ratio is ranked lower than
92% of the 301 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 2.95 vs. CMG: 8.54 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful PB Ratio only.
CMG' s PB Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 2.05  Med: 8.08 Max: 12.01
Current: 8.54
2.05
12.01
PS Ratio 2.96
CMG's PS Ratio is ranked lower than
85% of the 317 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 1.09 vs. CMG: 2.96 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful PS Ratio only.
CMG' s PS Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.03  Med: 3.46 Max: 5.88
Current: 2.96
1.03
5.88
Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow 65.78
CMG's Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is ranked lower than
85% of the 130 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 28.06 vs. CMG: 65.78 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow only.
CMG' s Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 18.97  Med: 45.23 Max: 795.18
Current: 65.78
18.97
795.18
Price-to-Operating-Cash-Flow 27.92
CMG's Price-to-Operating-Cash-Flow is ranked lower than
90% of the 173 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 12.03 vs. CMG: 27.92 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Operating-Cash-Flow only.
CMG' s Price-to-Operating-Cash-Flow Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 6.81  Med: 25.94 Max: 43.2
Current: 27.92
6.81
43.2
EV-to-EBIT 74.09
CMG's EV-to-EBIT is ranked lower than
90% of the 254 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 17.61 vs. CMG: 74.09 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful EV-to-EBIT only.
CMG' s EV-to-EBIT Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 8.5  Med: 26.45 Max: 355.4
Current: 74.09
8.5
355.4
EV-to-EBITDA 37.47
CMG's EV-to-EBITDA is ranked lower than
90% of the 271 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 13.09 vs. CMG: 37.47 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful EV-to-EBITDA only.
CMG' s EV-to-EBITDA Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 6.1  Med: 20.9 Max: 67.9
Current: 37.47
6.1
67.9
Shiller PE Ratio 55.23
CMG's Shiller PE Ratio is ranked lower than
83% of the 69 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 29.82 vs. CMG: 55.23 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Shiller PE Ratio only.
CMG' s Shiller PE Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 50.48  Med: 66.19 Max: 128.4
Current: 55.23
50.48
128.4
Current Ratio 2.17
CMG's Current Ratio is ranked higher than
82% of the 314 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 1.14 vs. CMG: 2.17 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Current Ratio only.
CMG' s Current Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.38  Med: 3.09 Max: 4.43
Current: 2.17
0.38
4.43
Quick Ratio 2.11
CMG's Quick Ratio is ranked higher than
82% of the 314 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 0.98 vs. CMG: 2.11 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Quick Ratio only.
CMG' s Quick Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.31  Med: 3.02 Max: 4.35
Current: 2.11
0.31
4.35
Days Inventory 1.78
CMG's Days Inventory is ranked higher than
96% of the 303 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 11.80 vs. CMG: 1.78 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Days Inventory only.
CMG' s Days Inventory Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.59  Med: 1.71 Max: 1.87
Current: 1.78
1.59
1.87
Days Sales Outstanding 1.90
CMG's Days Sales Outstanding is ranked higher than
87% of the 265 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 8.42 vs. CMG: 1.90 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Days Sales Outstanding only.
CMG' s Days Sales Outstanding Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1  Med: 2.03 Max: 3.78
Current: 1.9
1
3.78
Days Payable 8.72
CMG's Days Payable is ranked lower than
95% of the 248 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 40.07 vs. CMG: 8.72 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Days Payable only.
CMG' s Days Payable Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 8.08  Med: 8.87 Max: 10.76
Current: 8.72
8.08
10.76

Buy Back

vs
industry
vs
history
3-Year Average Share Buyback Ratio 2.40
CMG's 3-Year Average Share Buyback Ratio is ranked higher than
86% of the 182 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: -0.90 vs. CMG: 2.40 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful 3-Year Average Share Buyback Ratio only.
CMG' s 3-Year Average Share Buyback Ratio Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -16.6  Med: 0.2 Max: 2.4
Current: 2.4
-16.6
2.4

Valuation & Return

vs
industry
vs
history
Price-to-Net-Current-Asset-Value 1270.00
CMG's Price-to-Net-Current-Asset-Value is ranked lower than
100% of the 83 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 10.46 vs. CMG: 1270.00 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Net-Current-Asset-Value only.
CMG' s Price-to-Net-Current-Asset-Value Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 30.1  Med: 67.49 Max: 1350.06
Current: 1270
30.1
1350.06
Price-to-Tangible-Book 8.67
CMG's Price-to-Tangible-Book is ranked lower than
89% of the 250 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 3.28 vs. CMG: 8.67 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Tangible-Book only.
CMG' s Price-to-Tangible-Book Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3  Med: 7.97 Max: 11.54
Current: 8.67
3
11.54
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF 2.41
CMG's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF is ranked lower than
51% of the 169 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 2.47 vs. CMG: 2.41 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF only.
CMG' s Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 2.14  Med: 3.64 Max: 6.37
Current: 2.41
2.14
6.37
Price-to-Median-PS-Value 0.86
CMG's Price-to-Median-PS-Value is ranked higher than
72% of the 286 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 1.14 vs. CMG: 0.86 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Median-PS-Value only.
CMG' s Price-to-Median-PS-Value Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.42  Med: 1 Max: 1.6
Current: 0.86
0.42
1.6
Price-to-Graham-Number 7.02
CMG's Price-to-Graham-Number is ranked lower than
96% of the 169 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 2.03 vs. CMG: 7.02 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-Graham-Number only.
CMG' s Price-to-Graham-Number Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.76  Med: 3.85 Max: 12.85
Current: 7.02
1.76
12.85
Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) % 1.35
CMG's Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) % is ranked lower than
70% of the 324 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 4.61 vs. CMG: 1.35 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) % only.
CMG' s Earnings Yield (Greenblatt) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.3  Med: 3.8 Max: 11.8
Current: 1.35
0.3
11.8
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % -3.25
CMG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked lower than
72% of the 177 Companies
in the Global Restaurants industry.

( Industry Median: 7.99 vs. CMG: -3.25 )
Ranked among companies with meaningful Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % only.
CMG' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.6  Med: 29.9 Max: 52.8
Current: -3.25
-3.6
52.8

More Statistics

Revenue (TTM) (Mil) $4,138.75
EPS (TTM) $ 3.28
Beta0.12
Short Percentage of Float17.88%
52-Week Range $352.96 - 499.00
Shares Outstanding (Mil)28.66

Analyst Estimate

Dec17 Dec18 Dec19
Revenue (Mil $) 4,639 5,227 5,765
EPS ($) 8.24 12.17 14.39
EPS without NRI ($) 8.24 12.17 14.39
EPS Growth Rate
(Future 3Y To 5Y Estimate)
104.14%
Dividends per Share ($)
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