What is CTC Media Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, CTC Media's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of CTC Media's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Broadcasting subindustry, CTC Media's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
CTC Media's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Media - Diversified Industry
For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, CTC Media's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where CTC Media's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
CTC Media Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
CTC Media (CTC Media) Business Description
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CTC Media Inc was incorporated in 1989 and commenced television operations in May 1994, initially broadcasting from its first owned-and-operated station in St. Petersburg to 22 cities across Russia as a superstation a single station that retransmits its signal to remote locations. In December 1996, the Company launched CTC, a national network broadcasting by satellite from its center in Moscow. The Company launched Domashny in March 2005 and acquired DTV in April 2008.Its TV channels are currently distributed by means of free-to-air terrestrial broadcasting in analog format. Its signals are broadcasted by the owned-and-operated stations and unmanned repeater transmitters according to local analog broadcast licenses and universal licenses for analog frequencies in the respective regions, as well as by its independent affiliate stations and local cable operators. In exchange for the right to broadcast its signal, the company allows its affiliates to broadcast local advertising during designated time windows, from which they derive revenues. At CTC's Domashny and DTV Networks it also pays fees to some independent affiliates of these networks for broadcasting the Domashny or DTV signal. The Company has four reportable segments: CTC Network, Domashny Network, Peretz Network, and Channel 31. The Company competes with other broadcasters and other forms of media for advertising spending, and with other broadcasters for audience share, programming rights, affiliate stations and broadcast frequencies in particular VHF frequencies in key markets. The Company has registered trademarks for the "CTC", "Domashny", "DTV" and "CTC Media" name and logo in the Russian Federation.
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