What is Roundys Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Roundys's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Roundys's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Grocery Stores subindustry, Roundys's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Roundys's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Defensive Industry
For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Roundys's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Roundys's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Roundys Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Roundys (FRA:4R1) Business Description
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Roundys, Inc. is a Midwest supermarket founded in 1872 as a privately owned food wholesaling company. The Company is a food retailer in the state of Wisconsin. It owns and operates 163 retail grocery stores, of which 121 are located in Wisconsin, 29 are located in Minnesota and 13 are located in Illinois. It also distributes a full line of food and non-food products from three wholesale distribution centers and provides services to one independent licensee retail grocery store in Wisconsin. The Company completed the initial public offering on February 13, 2012. Its stores feature expansive meat, produce, deli and other perishable products and specialty and prepared foods departments. It also offers a line of health and beauty care products and a selection of seasonal merchandise to maximize the conveniences offered to its customers. The Company operates retail grocery stores under its Pick 'n Save, Rainbow, Copps, Metro Market and Mariano's retail banners. Many of its product categories include natural and organic options, catering to its customers' focus on healthier eating choices. It provides its customers with a compelling one-stop shopping experience featuring a level of customer service in its attractive and convenient stores. The Company's products can be classified as non-perishable, perishable and non-food. Non-perishable food categories consist of grocery, frozen, and dairy products. Perishable categories include produce, meat, seafood, deli, bakery and floral. Non-food includes general merchandise, health and beauty care, pharmacy, and alcohol. It distributes personalized offers to customers via email/ digital communication, in-store coupons and direct mail communications based on specific behaviors, measured through its loyalty card activity. The Company competes with conventional, national and regional supercenters such as; New Albertson's, Inc., Costco, Target and Wal-Mart, Woodman's and Meijer's, Festival Foods and Piggly Wiggly, Aldi, Trader Joe's and Whole Foods, and local supermarkets, natural foods stores, smaller specialty stores and farmers' markets. The Company is subject to federal, state and local laws and regulations relating to zoning, land use, environmental protection, work place safety, public health, community right-to-know, alcoholic beverage sales, tobacco sales and pharmaceutical sales.
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