What is Affinity Education Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Affinity Education Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Affinity Education Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Personal Services subindustry, Affinity Education Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Affinity Education Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Personal Services Industry
For the Personal Services industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Affinity Education Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Affinity Education Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Affinity Education Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Affinity Education Group (FRA:A0J) Business Description
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Affinity Education Group Ltd was incorporated on 21st May, 2013. The Company provides education and care to children aged six weeks to 12 years. Provision of these services includes long day care, before and after school care and occasional care. Its segments include Long day care centers, Outside school-hours care, Family day care, and Occasional care. Long day care centers are set up to primarily offer care to below school age children with working parents. The care can be both full-and-part time. Outside school-hours care provides before and after school short-term care to children of primary school age. Vacation care is also considered part of this segment, providing child care services to parents during school holidays. Family day care is the only area of child care approved under the National Quality Framework that takes place outside of a center, with care provided in the home of an approved educator. This type of care can be all day, part time, occasional or outside school hours. Occasional care offers child care services for children on a casual basis. Centers offering occasional services are primarily set up to provide flexibility to parents with irregular working hours or short-term needs. As with family day care, occasional care is a capped program.
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