What is Metalico Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Metalico's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Metalico's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Metal Fabrication subindustry, Metalico's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Metalico's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Industrial Products Industry
For the Industrial Products industry and Industrials sector, Metalico's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Metalico's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Metalico Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Metalico (FRA:MT5) Business Description
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Metalico Inc was originally organized as a Delaware corporation in August 1997. The Company along with its subsidiaries operates in two distinct business segments; scrap metal recycling and lead metal product fabricating. The Companys operating facilities include thirty-one scrap metal recycling facilities, including a combined aluminum de-oxidizing plant and four lead product manufacturing and fabricating plants. In the Scrap Metal Recycling segment, its operations mainly involves the collection and processing of ferrous and non-ferrous metals. It collects industrial and obsolete scrap metal, process it into reusable forms and supply the recycled metals to its consumers that include electric arc furnace mills, integrated steel mills, foundries, secondary smelters, aluminum recyclers and metal brokers. The Company acquires unprocessed scrap metals mainly in its local and regional markets and sells to consumers nationally and in Canada as well as to exporters and international brokers. Some of the metal commodities it recycles include steel, copper, aluminum, stainless steel, molybdenum, tantalum, platinum, lead and many others. In Lead Fabricating segment, through four physical operations located in three states, the Company consumes approximately 40 to 45 million pounds of lead metal per year that are utilized in more than one hundred different base products. Its products are sold nationally into diverse industries such as roofing, plumbing, radiation shielding for pharmaceutical and power generation, electronic solders, ammunition, automotive, Department of Defense contractors, and others. The Company sells its lead fabrications nationally. Products are sold to distributors, wholesalers, the plumbing and building trades, equipment manufacturers and other consumers. Its lead fabrication facilities compete against two fabricators of similar, but limited products based in the Southwest who distribute nationally and several smaller regional producers of similar products. To a lesser extent, it also competes against products imported from South America, Canada, Europe and Asia. The Company is subject to comprehensive and frequently changing Federal, state and local laws and regulations.
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