What is MeadWestvaco Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, MeadWestvaco's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of MeadWestvaco's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Packaging & Containers subindustry, MeadWestvaco's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
MeadWestvaco's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Packaging & Containers Industry
For the Packaging & Containers industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, MeadWestvaco's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where MeadWestvaco's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
MeadWestvaco Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
MeadWestvaco (FRA:MVA) Business Description
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MeadWestvaco Corp is a Delaware corporation formed in 2001 following the merger of Westvaco Corporation and The Mead Corporation. It is a packaging company that provides packaging solutions to many of the world's brands in the healthcare, personal and beauty care, food, beverage, tobacco, media and entertainment, and home and garden industries. The business segments are Food & Beverage, Home, Health & Beauty, Industrial, Specialty Chemicals, and Community Development and Land Management. The Food & Beverage segment produces packaging materials, and designs and produces packaging solutions for the global food, food service, beverage, dairy and tobacco end markets, as well as paperboard for commercial printing. For the global food market, the segment develops and produces materials and solutions that are used to package frozen food, dry goods, ready-to-eat meals, hot and cold drinks, and various shelf-stable dairy products. For the global beverage market, the segment has a fully integrated business model, including high-performance paperboard, carton design and converting operations, as well as beverage packaging machinery. The Home, Health & Beauty segment designs and produces packaging solutions for the global personal care, fragrance, home care, lawn and garden, prescription drug and healthcare end markets. For the global beauty and personal care market, the segment produces pumps for fragrances, lotions, creams and soaps, flip-top and applicator closures for bath and body products and lotions, and paperboard and plastic packaging for hair and skin care products. For the global home and garden market, the segment produces trigger sprayers for surface cleaners and fabric care, aerosol actuators for air fresheners, hose-end sprayers for lawn and garden maintenance, and spouted and applicator closures for a variety of other home and garden products. The Industrial segment designs and produces corrugated packaging solutions, for produce, meat, consumer products and bulk goods. In Brazil, where the business is based, the integrated business includes forestlands, paperboard mills and corrugated box plants. This segment also includes operations in India, which develop corrugated packaging materials as well as corrugated packaging solutions for Indian fresh produce. In Brazil, the segment manufactures high-quality virgin kraftliner and recycled material medium paperboards, and converts the board to corrugated packaging at four box plants across the country. The Specialty Chemicals segment manufactures, markets and distributes specialty chemicals derived from sawdust and other byproducts of the papermaking process in North America, Europe, South America and Asia. Products include performance chemicals derived from pine chemicals used in printing inks, asphalt paving and adhesives as well as in the agricultural, paper and petroleum industries. This segment also produces activated carbon products used in gas vapor emission control systems
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