What is Greater China Fund Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Greater China Fund's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Greater China Fund's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Asset Management subindustry, Greater China Fund's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Greater China Fund's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Asset Management Industry
For the Asset Management industry and Financial Services sector, Greater China Fund's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Greater China Fund's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Greater China Fund Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Greater China Fund (Greater China Fund) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Greater China Fund Inc is a closed end management investment company. Its objective is to seek long-term capital appreciation through investment in listed equity securities of companies.
Executives
| City Of London Investment Group Plc |
10 percent owner |
77 GRACECHURCH STREET, LONDON X0 EC3V0AS |
| Joseph Andolina |
officer: Vice President - Compliance |
1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Guet Tay Kheng |
other: Director of Investment Manager |
1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| City Of London Investment Management Co Ltd |
10 percent owner |
77 GRACECHURCH STREET, LONDON X0 EC3V0AS |
| Terence Lim |
other: Director of Investment Adviser |
1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILIADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Bill Maher |
director |
600 WEST BROADWAY, 30TH FL., SAN DIEGO CA 92101 |
| Moritz A Sell |
director |
C/O USBANCORP FUND SERVICES, 777 E WISCONSIN AVE., MILWAUKEE WI 53202 |
| Flavia Cheong |
other: Director of Investment Advisor |
1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Hui Lin Ng |
other: Director of Investment Advisor |
1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Lim Sock-hwei |
other: Director of Investment Adviser |
1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Andrew Narracott |
other: Director of Investment Adviser |
1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Beverley Hendry |
officer: Vice President |
C/O ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGMENT INC., 1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Victor Rodriguez |
other: Director of Investment Adviser |
1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Gary Marshall |
officer: Vice President |
97 HAYMARKET TERRACE, EDINBURGH X0 EH12 5HD |
| Lucia Sitar |
officer: Vice President and CLO |
1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
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