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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Lodging subindustry, Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (NYSE:HOT) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Charlene Barshefsky | director | |
Lizanne Galbreath | director | LASALLE PARTNERS INC, 200 RANDOLPH DR, CHICAGO IL 60601 |
Kenneth S Siegel | officer: CAO & General Counsel | 40 STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS, 111 WESTCHESTER AVE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604 |
Thomas B Mangas | director, officer: Chief Executive Officer | C/O ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES, INC., 2500 COLUMBIA AVENUE, LANCASTER PA 17603 |
Sergio Rivera | officer: President, The Americas | C/O STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE,, ONE STARPOINT, STAMFORD CT 06902 |
Stephen R Quazzo | director | C/O STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE, 44 SOUTH BROADWAY, WHITE PLAINS NY 10601 |
Daley Clayton C Jr | director | C/O THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY,, ONE PROCTER & GAMBLE PLAZA, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
Thomas E Clarke | director | C/O NEWELL RUBBERMAID INC, THREE GLENLAKE PKWY., ATLANTA 2Q 30328 |
Thomas O Ryder | director | C/O READERS DIGEST ASSOCITATION INC, READERS DIGEST RD., PLEASANTVILLE NY 10570 |
Aylwin B Lewis | director | 111 N. CANAL, SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
Eric Hippeau | director | STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE, 44 SOUTH BROADWAY, WHITE PLAINS NY 10601 |
Bruce W Duncan | director | ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4200, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
Adam M Aron | director, officer: CEO on an interim basis | AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC, 11500 ASH STREET, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
Van Paasschen Frits D | director, officer: President and CEO | C/O STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE, 1111 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604 |
Vasant M Prabhu | officer: Vice Chairman & CFO | C/O SAFEWAY INC, 5918 STONERIDGE MALL ROAD, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
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