GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » The Kroger Co (NYSE:KR) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

The Kroger Co (The Kroger Co) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.03% (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


View and export this data going back to 1951. Start your Free Trial

What is The Kroger Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, The Kroger Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of The Kroger Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Grocery Stores subindustry, The Kroger Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


The Kroger Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Defensive Industry

For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, The Kroger Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where The Kroger Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



The Kroger Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.03

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


The Kroger Co  (NYSE:KR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


The Kroger Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of The Kroger Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


The Kroger Co (The Kroger Co) Business Description

Industry
Address
1014 Vine Street, Cincinnati, OH, USA, 45202
Kroger is the leading U.S. grocer, with 2,719 supermarkets operating under several banners throughout the country at the end of fiscal 2022. Around 83% of stores have pharmacies, while nearly 60% also sell fuel. The company also operates roughly 120 fine jewelry stores. Kroger features a leading private-label offering and manufactures around 30% of its own-brand units (and more than 40% of its grocery own-label assortment) itself in 33 food production plants nationwide. Kroger is a top-two grocer in most of its major markets (as of early 2021, according to company data). Virtually all of Kroger's sales come from the United States. Kroger has offered to acquire Albertsons in a $25 billion deal; if the transaction is approved by regulators, it should close in 2024.
Executives
Carin L Fike officer: Vice President and Treasurer 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Timothy A Massa officer: Group Vice President 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Christine S Wheatley officer: Group Vice President 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Kenneth C Kimball officer: Senior Vice President C/O THE KROGER CO., 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Stuart Aitken officer: Group Vice President C/O JOURNAL MEDIA GROUP, INC., 333 WEST STATE STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Yael Cosset officer: Group Vice President 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Gary Millerchip officer: Senior Vice President and CFO 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Todd A Foley officer: Vice President and Treasurer 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Valerie L. Jabbar officer: Senior Vice President THE KROGER CO., 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Mary Ellen Adcock officer: Group Vice President 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Calvin J Kaufman officer: Group Vice President THE KROGER CO., 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Mark C Tuffin officer: Senior Vice President THE KROGER CO., 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Elaine L. Chao director C/O DOLE FOOD COMPANY, INC., ONE DOLE DRIVE, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91362
Michael Joseph Donnelly officer: Senior Vice President
Susan J Kropf director C/O AVON PRODUCTS INC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105-0196

The Kroger Co (The Kroger Co) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Q2 2020 Kroger Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q1 2023 Kroger Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q4 2019 Kroger Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q1 2022 Kroger Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q3 2019 Kroger Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q4 2022 Kroger Co Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024