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Greif (GEF) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $66.15 (As of May. 15, 2024)


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What is Greif Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-15), Greif's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $66.15.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Greif's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Greif is 3.42%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Greif's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Greif was 0.63. The lowest was 0.49. And the median was 0.61.

GEF's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Packaging & Containers industry.
Industry Median: 1
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Greif Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Greif's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Greif Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Greif Annual Data
Trend Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Greif Quarterly Data
Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23 Apr23 Jul23 Oct23 Jan24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Greif's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Packaging & Containers subindustry, Greif's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Greif's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Packaging & Containers Industry

For the Packaging & Containers industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Greif's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Greif's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Greif Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.44%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Greif's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 1.50%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $5.7321.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Greif's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=5.7321*11.5406
=66.15

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (66.15 - 63.89) / 66.15
= 3.42 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Greif  (NYSE:GEF) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Greif Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Greif (GEF) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
425 Winter Road, Delaware, OH, USA, 43015
Greif Inc is a producer of industrial packaging products and services with manufacturing facilities located in many countries. It offers a comprehensive line of rigid industrial packaging products, such as steel, fiber, and plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk containers, closure systems for industrial packaging products, transit protection products, water bottles and remanufactured and reconditioned industrial containers, and services, such as container life cycle management, blending, filling, logistics, warehousing, and other packaging services. The company operates in three reportable business segments including Global Industrial Packaging, Paper Packaging and Services, and Land Management. It operates in North and Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific regions.
Executives
Miller Frank Calhoun V director 425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Vivian Bouet officer: VP Chief Inf & Digital Officer 425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Patrick Gerard Mullaney officer: SVP, Pres. Global Industrial P 425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Roel Vestjens director C/O BELDEN INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., 15TH FLOOR, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
Anthony John Krabill officer: Corporate Treasurer 425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Michael Joseph Taylor officer: Corporate Controller 425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Matthew Douglas Eichmann officer: VP, Chief Mktg & Sust. Officer 425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Kimberly Thompson Scott director 425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Karen Morrison director 425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Tina R. Schoner officer: SVP Chief Supply Chain Officer 425 WINTER RD., DELAWARE OH 43015
Kimberly Anne Kellermann officer: SVP, Global Operations Group 425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Nicholas Joseph Petitti 10 percent owner 200 CIVIC CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1200, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Robert M Patterson director 33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Bala Sathyanarayanan officer: SVP, Chief Human Resources Off 425 WINTER RD., DELAWARE OH 43015
Vicki L Avril director 604 KENMARE DRIVE, BURR RIDGE IL 60527

Greif (GEF) Headlines