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SMS Alternatives (SMS Alternatives) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) : $-5.98 (As of May. 24, 2024)


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What is SMS Alternatives Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

As of today (2024-05-24), SMS Alternatives's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $-5.98.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

SMS Alternatives's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for SMS Alternatives is N/A.

The historical rank and industry rank for SMS Alternatives's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CICN's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Software industry.
Industry Median: 0.94
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.

SMS Alternatives Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for SMS Alternatives's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

SMS Alternatives Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

SMS Alternatives Annual Data
Trend Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
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SMS Alternatives Quarterly Data
Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of SMS Alternatives's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

For the Software - Application subindustry, SMS Alternatives's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


SMS Alternatives's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, SMS Alternatives's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where SMS Alternatives's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



SMS Alternatives Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.47%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> SMS Alternatives's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $-0.518.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

SMS Alternatives's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-0.518*11.5406
=-5.98

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(-5.98-0.01)/-5.98
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


SMS Alternatives  (OTCPK:CICN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


SMS Alternatives Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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SMS Alternatives (SMS Alternatives) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8000 Regency Parkway, Suite 542, Cary, NC, USA, 27518
SMS Alternatives Inc formerly Cicero Inc provides desktop activity intelligence and improvement software that helps organizations isolate issues and automates employee tasks in the contact center and back office. It provides a combination of application and process integration, automation and desktop analytics capabilities, technical support, training and consulting services. Geographically, it operates in the United States, and Europe. The company generates revenue from three categories: software, maintenance, and services; out of which a vast majority is earned from Software within the United States.
Executives
Mark Landis director 251 CRANDON BLVD. KEY BISCAYNE FL 33149
John Steffens director, 10 percent owner C/O DIGITALBRIDGE GROUP, INC., 750 PARK OF COMMERCE DRIVE SUITE 210, BOCCA RATON FL 33487
Don Peppers director 1111 SUMMER STREET STAMFORD CT 06905
Privet Fund Lp 10 percent owner 3280 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 2670, Atlanta GA 30305
Privet Fund Management Llc 10 percent owner 3280 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 2670, ATLANTA GA 30305
Ryan Levenson director, 10 percent owner 2396 DELLWOOD DRIVE, ATLANTA GA 30305
Thomas Aiken Avery director 465 LAUREL CHASE COURT, ATLANTA GA 30327
Bruce D Miller director 42 NONANTUM AVE NANTUCKETT MA 02584
Jonathan Gallen 10 percent owner 450 PARK AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
John P Broderick director, officer: CEO/CFO 214 CARNERE CENTER SUITE 303 PRINCETON NJ 08540
Antony J Castagno director, officer: CTO 11775 MOUNTAIN PARK ROAD ROSWELL GA 30075
Jay Kingley director 20 THISTLE LANE WARREN NJ 07059
Charles B Porciello director 2635 BUCKINGHAM RD ELLICOTT CITY MD 21043
Bruce W Hasenyager director 1400 EARLSHIRE PLACE PLANO TX 75075
Atherton John W Jr director

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