Asiainfo-Linkage, (FRA:AFB) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : €6.57 (As of Jun. 07, 2024)

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What is Asiainfo-Linkage, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-06-07), Asiainfo-Linkage,'s intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is €6.57.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Asiainfo-Linkage, is -30.14%.

The industry rank for Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:AFB's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Software industry.
Industry Median: 0.955
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Asiainfo-Linkage, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Asiainfo-Linkage, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Asiainfo-Linkage, Annual Data

Trend

Dec03

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Dec05

Dec06

Dec07

Dec08

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Dec12

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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Asiainfo-Linkage, Quarterly Data
	Dec08	Mar09	Jun09	Sep09	Dec09	Mar10	Jun10	Sep10	Dec10	Mar11	Jun11	Sep11	Dec11	Mar12	Jun12	Sep12	Dec12	Mar13	Jun13	Sep13
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Software - Application subindustry, Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Asiainfo-Linkage, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.30%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Asiainfo-Linkage,'s average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = €0.569.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Asiainfo-Linkage,'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

0.569

11.5406

6.57

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(6.57	-	8.55)	/	6.57
	=	-30.14 %

Asiainfo-Linkage, (FRA:AFB) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Asiainfo-Linkage, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Asiainfo-Linkage, (FRA:AFB) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Asiainfo-Linkage, Inc. (FRA:AFB) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.asiainfo-linkage.com

Asiainfo-Linkage, Inc, a Delaware corporation, commenced operations in the United States in 1993. The Company is a provider of telecommunications software solutions and information technology, or IT, related services in China. It also provides variety of services including business operational consulting service, IT architecture planning service, system integration services based on its own products and other third party software and hardware, change of request implementation, maintenance on customer premise and management services. The Company's suite of innovative solutions includes business and operation support systems, network infrastructure solutions, and service application solutions. The products and services it offers to the telecommunications industry include various software product suites, most of which are designed with open architecture to facilitate further development and customization for specific purposes. The Company's core BSS/OSS offering primarily includes convergent billing solutions, CRM and BI systems. It also provides software enhancement and maintenance services for the systems it develop, as well as system integration and other value-added IT consulting and planning services. Its OSS Package is a highly comprehensive and intelligent service fulfilment framework based on OSS fulfilment domain definition in eTOM model and OSS specifications of telecom operators. In OSS Package, process analysis methodology and project implementation methodology enables a rapid implementation of telecom service fulfilment system. It provides process analysis methodology, project implementation methodology, inventory data model, interface integration framework and built-in inventory management templates. Its network management solutions include network access and backbone infrastructure planning, design and implementation for telecommunications and Internet service providers. These services include technical training for its customers, as well as professional maintenance and support services. The Company designs and provides a series of service applications that enable telecommunications operators and service providers to offer value-added services, such as Short Message Service, or SMS, mobile email, mobile entertainment and mobile e-commerce. These applications often involve licensed third-party software that it's customizes or integrate with its proprietary software to provide individualized solutions. The Company's software and services enable its customers to build, maintain, operate, manage and improve their communications infrastructure. Its largest customers are the major telecommunications carriers in China and their provincial subsidiaries, including China Mobile Communications Corporation, or China Mobile, China United Telecommunications Corporation, or China Unicom, and China Telecommunications Corporation, or China Telecom. The Company relies on its own sales force to market and sell its products and services