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Clicks Group (Clicks Group) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) : $13.74 (As of Apr. 28, 2024)


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What is Clicks Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

As of today (2024-04-28), Clicks Group's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $13.74.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Clicks Group's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Clicks Group is -118.34%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Clicks Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CLCGY' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.94   Med: 2.18   Max: 2.69
Current: 2.18

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Clicks Group was 2.69. The lowest was 0.94. And the median was 2.18.

CLCGY's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
79.79% of 94 companies
in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry
Industry Median: 1.01 vs CLCGY: 2.18

Clicks Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Clicks Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Clicks Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

Clicks Group Annual Data
Trend Aug14 Aug15 Aug16 Aug17 Aug18 Aug19 Aug20 Aug21 Aug22 Aug23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 12.01 11.60 14.96 16.48 13.65

Clicks Group Semi-Annual Data
Feb14 Aug14 Feb15 Aug15 Feb16 Aug16 Feb17 Aug17 Feb18 Aug18 Feb19 Aug19 Feb20 Aug20 Feb21 Aug21 Feb22 Aug22 Feb23 Aug23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 14.96 - 16.48 - 13.65

Competitive Comparison of Clicks Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

For the Pharmaceutical Retailers subindustry, Clicks Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Clicks Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Healthcare Providers & Services Industry

For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry and Healthcare sector, Clicks Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Clicks Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



Clicks Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 18%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 11.90%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 14.00%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Clicks Group's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 14.00%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 14.00%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $1.137.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Clicks Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.14)/(1+0.18) = 0.96610169491525
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.18) = 0.88135593220339

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1.137*12.0866
=13.74

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(13.74-30.00)/13.74
=-118.34 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Clicks Group  (OTCPK:CLCGY) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Clicks Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Clicks Group (Clicks Group) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Cnr Searle and Pontac Streets, PO Box 5142, Cape Town, ZAF, 8001
Clicks Group Ltd operates pharmaceutical health and beauty retail stores. The company primarily operates a retail pharmacy chain in South Africa, with a limited number of operations in bordering countries. The company targets middle- to upper-income consumers. Clicks' business strategy focuses on consistent product sourcing, product development, and measured store expansion. The company has a portfolio of retail franchise brands including The Body Shop, GNC, and claire's. Clicks uses United Pharmaceutical Distributors' capabilities for the groups' integrated channel to the healthcare market.

Clicks Group (Clicks Group) Headlines

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