Foghorn Therapeutics (Foghorn Therapeutics) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $-55.21 (As of Apr. 28, 2024)

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What is Foghorn Therapeutics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-28), Foghorn Therapeutics's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-55.21.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Foghorn Therapeutics's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Foghorn Therapeutics is N/A.

The industry rank for Foghorn Therapeutics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FHTX's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Biotechnology industry.
Industry Median: 1.85
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Foghorn Therapeutics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Foghorn Therapeutics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Foghorn Therapeutics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Foghorn Therapeutics Annual Data

Trend

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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Foghorn Therapeutics Quarterly Data
	Dec18	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Foghorn Therapeutics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Foghorn Therapeutics's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Foghorn Therapeutics's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Foghorn Therapeutics's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Foghorn Therapeutics's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Foghorn Therapeutics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 12.90%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Foghorn Therapeutics's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 12.90%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 12.90%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-2.843.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Foghorn Therapeutics's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.129)/(1+0.11) = 1.0171171171171
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

-2.843

19.4188

-55.21

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(-55.21	-	5.49)	/	-55.21
	=	N/A

Foghorn Therapeutics (NAS:FHTX) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Foghorn Therapeutics Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Foghorn Therapeutics (Foghorn Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Foghorn Therapeutics Inc (NAS:FHTX) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 Technology Square, Suite 700, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139

Website

https://www.foghorntx.com

Foghorn Therapeutics Inc is engaged in the discovery and development of a new class of medicines targeting genetically determined dependencies within the chromatin regulatory system. Its proprietary Gene Traffic Control platform gives an integrated, mechanistic understanding of how the various components of the chromatin regulatory system interact, allowing it to identify, validate and potentially drug targets within the system. The company is developing FHD-286, a selective, allosteric ATPase inhibitor, and FHD-609, a protein degrader, to treat hematologic cancers and solid tumors.

Executives

Alfonso Quintas Cardama	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O TCR2 THERAPEUTICS INC., 100 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Samuel Agresta	officer: Chief Medical Officer	784 MEMORIAL DR., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Lynch Thomas J. Jr.	director	800 HOWARD AVENUE, YALE PHYSICIANS BUILDING, 2ND FLOOR, NEW HAVEN CT 06519
B Lynne Parshall	director	2855 GAZELLE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92010
Carlos Costa	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O FOGHORN THERAPEUTICS INC., 500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 700, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Fanny Cavalie	officer: Chief Strategy/Bus Ops Officer	C/O FOGHORN THERAPEUTICS INC., 500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 700, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Ian F Smith	director	C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
Michael Lacascia	officer: Chief Legal Officer	500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 700, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Carl Decicco	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	100 BINNEY STREET, SUITE 610, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Flagship Ventures Opportunities Fund I General Partner Llc	10 percent owner	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 800E, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority	10 percent owner	211 CORNICHE STREET, PO BOX 3600, ABU DHABI C0 0000
Michael Mendelsohn	director	C/O CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Adam Koppel	director	C/O BROOKSIDE CAPITAL, LLC, JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON ST, BOSTON MA 02116
Steven F. Bellon	officer: See Remarks	500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 700, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jose Baselga	director	780 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139