FHTX (Foghorn Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Foghorn Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Foghorn Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Foghorn Therapeutics Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Foghorn Therapeutics Inc (NAS:FHTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 Technology Square, Suite 700, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139

Website

https://www.foghorntx.com

Foghorn Therapeutics Inc is engaged in the discovery and development of a new class of medicines targeting genetically determined dependencies within the chromatin regulatory system. Its proprietary Gene Traffic Control platform gives an integrated, mechanistic understanding of how the various components of the chromatin regulatory system interact, allowing it to identify, validate, and potentially drug targets within the system. The company is developing FHD-286, a selective, allosteric ATPase inhibitor, and FHD-609, a protein degrader, to treat hematologic cancers and solid tumors.

Executives

Carlos Costa	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O FOGHORN THERAPEUTICS INC., 500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 700, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Steven F. Bellon	officer: See Remarks	500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 700, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Fanny Cavalie	officer: Chief Strategy/Bus Ops Officer	C/O FOGHORN THERAPEUTICS INC., 500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 700, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Alfonso Quintas Cardama	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O TCR2 THERAPEUTICS INC., 100 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Samuel Agresta	officer: Chief Medical Officer	784 MEMORIAL DR., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Lynch Thomas J. Jr.	director	800 HOWARD AVENUE, YALE PHYSICIANS BUILDING, 2ND FLOOR, NEW HAVEN CT 06519
B Lynne Parshall	director	2855 GAZELLE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92010
Ian F Smith	director	C/O ACORDA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 420 SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, ARDSLEY NY 10502
Michael Lacascia	officer: Chief Legal Officer	500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, SUITE 700, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Carl Decicco	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	100 BINNEY STREET, SUITE 610, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Flagship Ventures Opportunities Fund I General Partner Llc	10 percent owner	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 800E, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority	10 percent owner	211 CORNICHE STREET, PO BOX 3600, ABU DHABI C0 0000
Platinum International Investment Holding Rsc Ltd	10 percent owner	26TH FLOOR, AL KHATEM TOWER, ADGM SQUARE, PO BOX 25642, AL MARYAH ISLAND, ABU DHABI C0 NA
Adam Koppel	director	C/O BROOKSIDE CAPITAL, LLC, JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON ST, BOSTON MA 02116
Jose Baselga	director	780 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139