Switch to:
GuruFocus has detected 8 Warning Signs with Aircastle Ltd $AYR.
More than 500,000 people have already joined GuruFocus to track the stocks they follow and exchange investment ideas.
Aircastle Ltd (NYSE:AYR)
Beneish M-Score
-2.85 (As of Today)

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not an accounting manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely an accounting manipulator.

Aircastle Ltd has a M-score of -2.85 suggests that the company is not a manipulator.

AYR' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.83   Max: 2.36
Current: -2.85

-3.83
2.36

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Aircastle Ltd was 2.36. The lowest was -3.83. And the median was -2.84.


Definition

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Z-Score) or business trend (F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Aircastle Ltd for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0264+0.528 * 0.9994+0.404 * 1.1132+0.892 * 0.9814+0.115 * 1.17
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 1.1034+4.679 * -0.0804-0.327 * 1.1632
=-2.85

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

This Year (Mar17) TTM:Last Year (Mar16) TTM:
Accounts Receivable was $7.4 Mil.
Revenue was 204.273 + 204.653 + 194.652 + 189.988 = $793.6 Mil.
Gross Profit was 201.342 + 202.384 + 192.818 + 187.721 = $784.3 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $930.1 Mil.
Total Assets was $7,740.9 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $6,295.7 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $307.7 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $62.5 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $913.6 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $4,971.2 Mil.
Net Income was 42.439 + 67.724 + 27.437 + 20.03 = $157.6 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 62.678 + 117.668 + 56.712 + 64.771 = $301.8 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 131.576 + 100.679 + 132.716 + 113.433 = $478.4 Mil.
Accounts Receivable was $7.4 Mil.
Revenue was 183.665 + 208.267 + 212.074 + 204.565 = $808.6 Mil.
Gross Profit was 182.262 + 205.891 + 209.554 + 200.902 = $798.6 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $743.5 Mil.
Total Assets was $6,702.8 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $5,558.7 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $320.6 Mil.
Selling, General & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $57.8 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $196.4 Mil.
Long-Term Debt was $4,184.4 Mil.



1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of days’ sales in receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(7.442 / 793.566) / (7.388 / 808.571)
=0.00937792 / 0.00913711
=1.0264

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(798.609 / 808.571) / (784.265 / 793.566)
=0.9876795 / 0.98827949
=0.9994

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than plant, property and equipment to total assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (930.054 + 6295.69) / 7740.91) / (1 - (743.456 + 5558.666) / 6702.832)
=0.06655109 / 0.05978219
=1.1132

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of sales in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=793.566 / 808.571
=0.9814

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of depreciation in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(320.584 / (320.584 + 5558.666)) / (307.743 / (307.743 + 6295.69))
=0.05452804 / 0.04660349
=1.17

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of SGA expenses in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(62.547 / 793.566) / (57.758 / 808.571)
=0.07881764 / 0.07143219
=1.1034

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase$sgai= in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((4971.184 + 913.642) / 7740.91) / ((4184.38 + 196.36) / 6702.832)
=0.76022406 / 0.65356554
=1.1632

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(157.63 - 301.829 - 478.404) / 7740.91
=-0.0804

An M-Score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -2.22 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Aircastle Ltd has a M-score of -2.85 suggests that the company will not be a manipulator.


Related Terms

Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score, Accounts Receivable, Revenue, Gross Profit, Total Current Assets, Total Assets, Property, Plant and Equipment, Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Selling, General & Admin. Expense, Total Current Liabilities, Long-Term Debt, Net Income, Non Operating Income, Cash Flow from Operations


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

Aircastle Ltd Annual Data

Dec07Dec08Dec09Dec10Dec11Dec12Dec13Dec14Dec15Dec16
DSRI 0.3090.41710.950.66731.75161.35990.48661.02172.56740.7467
GMI 11.00791.02710.98391.00380.99940.99780.98951.00530.996
AQI 4.19760.42060.47280.92062.55161.53290.97080.81731.60060.9932
SGI 2.08421.52870.97940.92491.14681.13451.03211.15521.00070.9435
DEPI 1.11160.64710.99261.02810.93570.95551.02351.04990.98811.1064
SGAI 0.67350.76341.03121.07560.87540.92781.07030.90351.00691.1668
LVGI 1.10221.01410.90350.98181.02911.07720.96371.02291.14321.0242
TATA -0.0353-0.047-0.0449-0.0978-0.0524-0.096-0.0743-0.0946-0.111-0.0873
M-score -0.99-3.00-2.93-3.36-1.27-2.28-3.28-2.83-1.36-3.20

Aircastle Ltd Quarterly Data

Dec14Mar15Jun15Sep15Dec15Mar16Jun16Sep16Dec16Mar17
DSRI 1.02170.45590.77640.71112.56743.20260.92421.89050.74671.0264
GMI 0.98950.99281.00021.00361.00531.00240.99930.9970.9960.9994
AQI 0.81731.08721.25211.25821.60061.19251.35911.14160.99321.1132
SGI 1.15521.17941.06521.09951.00070.96680.97460.91450.94350.9814
DEPI 1.04990.96941.0331.07040.98810.91580.93911.0271.10641.17
SGAI 0.90350.8740.96320.92021.00691.07131.06361.16691.16681.1034
LVGI 1.02290.98191.04141.02711.14321.00240.98131.00671.02421.1632
TATA -0.0946-0.0887-0.0888-0.0991-0.111-0.1094-0.1056-0.0913-0.0873-0.0804
M-score -2.83-3.18-2.94-3.00-1.36-0.94-2.93-2.14-3.20-2.85
Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)

GF Chat

{{numOfNotice}}
FEEDBACK