ORGN (Origin Materials) Beneish M-Score: -6.47 (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


ORGN Origin Materials Inc ORGN
31 GF Score
Price $0.88
GF Value $10.56
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is Origin Materials Beneish M-Score?

Origin Materials ORGN -1.30% 31 Beneish M-Score is -6.47 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates ORGN with a GF Score™ of 31/100 and a GF Value™ of $10.56 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,529 Chemicals companies, Origin Materials ranks better than 99.02% on this metric.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -6.47 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Origin Materials's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

ORGN' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -6.47   Med: -0.27   Max: 15.41
Current: -6.47

During the past 6 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Origin Materials was 15.41. The lowest was -6.47. And the median was -0.27.


Origin Materials Beneish M-Score Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Origin Materials's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Origin Materials Beneish M-Score Chart

Origin Materials Annual Data
Trend Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.04 -5.70

Origin Materials Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.91 2.00 -0.82 -5.70 -6.47

ORGN vs GURE, DOW: Beneish M-Score Comparison

For the Chemicals subindustry, Origin Materials's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Origin Materials Beneish M-Score vs Chemicals Industry

For the Chemicals industry and Basic Materials sector, Origin Materials's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Origin Materials's Beneish M-Score falls into.


ORGN
31GF Score
Origin Materials Inc ORGN
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Origin Materials Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Origin Materials for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 0.6689+0.528 * 0.3234+0.404 * 0.3106+0.892 * 0.4674+0.115 * 0.4713
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 2.1813+4.679 * -0.26198-0.327 * 4.3069
=-6.47

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar26) TTM:Last Year (Mar25) TTM:
Total Receivables was $6.95 Mil.
Revenue was 0.477 + 3.022 + 4.657 + 5.813 = $13.97 Mil.
Gross Profit was 0.14 + 0.089 + 0.157 + 0.182 = $0.57 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $50.53 Mil.
Total Assets was $135.08 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $82.81 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $9.65 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $41.67 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $19.02 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $11.10 Mil.
Net Income was -17.65 + -194.128 + -16.382 + -12.747 = $-240.91 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -1.123 + -177.993 + 0.447 + 2.37 = $-176.30 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -4.867 + -8.921 + -8.139 + -7.294 = $-29.22 Mil.
Total Receivables was $22.23 Mil.
Revenue was 5.43 + 9.222 + 8.202 + 7.033 = $29.89 Mil.
Gross Profit was 0.113 + 0.012 + 0.061 + 0.207 = $0.39 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $119.51 Mil.
Total Assets was $348.98 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $215.01 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $11.12 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $40.87 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $12.57 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $5.50 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(6.949 / 13.969) / (22.226 / 29.887)
=0.497459 / 0.743668
=0.6689

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(0.393 / 29.887) / (0.568 / 13.969)
=0.01315 / 0.040661
=0.3234

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (50.53 + 82.806) / 135.075) / (1 - (119.509 + 215.005) / 348.977)
=0.012874 / 0.041444
=0.3106

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=13.969 / 29.887
=0.4674

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(11.118 / (11.118 + 215.005)) / (9.646 / (9.646 + 82.806))
=0.049168 / 0.104335
=0.4713

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(41.671 / 13.969) / (40.872 / 29.887)
=2.983105 / 1.367551
=2.1813

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((11.103 + 19.024) / 135.075) / ((5.5 + 12.572) / 348.977)
=0.223039 / 0.051786
=4.3069

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(-240.907 - -176.299 - -29.221) / 135.075
=-0.26198

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Origin Materials has a M-score of -6.47 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -6.47 mean?
Origin Materials (ORGN) has a Beneish M-Score of -6.47 as of Jun. 25, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Origin Materials and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Origin Materials ranks #15 out of 1529 companies in the Chemicals industry, placing it in the top 1%.
Is Origin Materials' Beneish M-Score too high?
Origin Materials' current Beneish M-Score is -6.47. Based on the distribution chart, Origin Materials ranks #15 out of 1529 companies in the Chemicals industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Origin Materials has a GF Score™ of 31/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Origin Materials' Beneish M-Score compare to GURE and DOW?
According to the Chemicals industry distribution chart, Origin Materials ranks #15 out of 1529 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places Origin Materials in the top 1% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Chemicals company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Chemicals industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on Origin Materials and its competitors. Origin Materials's current Beneish M-Score is -6.47. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Origin Materials stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Origin Materials (ORGN) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $10.56, compared to a current price of $0.88 — trading 91.7% below its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -6.47. Origin Materials' overall GF Score™ is 31/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Origin Materials (ORGN), the current Beneish M-Score is -6.47 as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Origin Materials (ORGN) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Origin Materials stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $0.88 is trading 91.7% below its estimated GF Value™ of $10.56. GuruFocus considers Origin Materials to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for ORGN:

  • Beneish M-Score: -6.47
  • GF Value™: $10.56 vs. price of $0.88 (91.7% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 31/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ORGN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Origin Materials Business Description

Address 930 Riverside Parkway, Suite 10, West Sacramento, CA, USA, 95605
Origin Materials Inc is a technology company with a mission to enable the world's transition to sustainable materials. The platform turns the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while eliminating the need for fossil resources and capturing carbon in the process. Its products include PET circular caps and closures, Para-xylene, carbon black, Levulinic acid, among others, by using materials like food and beverage packaging, clothing, textiles, plastics, car parts, carpeting, tires, adhesives, soil amendments, and fuels.
31GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ORGN

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$0.88
Price
$10.56
GF Value