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Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund (Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund) Predictability Rank


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What is Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund (Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund (NAS:CSQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PSEC EXG NZF NVG ADX VCTR PAX TPG UTF APAM BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2020 Calamos Court, Naperville, IL, USA, 60563-2787
Website
https://www.calamos.com
Calamos Strategic Total Return Fund is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The fund's investment strategy is to provide total return through a combination of capital appreciation and current income. Its investment portfolio consists of equities, convertible securities and high-yield corporate bonds.
Executives
John S. Koudounis officer: Vice President 2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Erik D. Ojala officer: VP, Sec'y & Chief Legal Off. 2020 CALAMOS CT., NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Susan L Schoenberger officer: VP and Assistant Secretary 2020 CALAMOS COURT, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Thrivent Financial For Lutherans 10 percent owner 901 MARQUETTE AVENUE, SUITE 2500, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402-3211
Apollo Management Holdings, L.p. 10 percent owner 9 W. 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Life Asset L.p. 10 percent owner C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTER, 27 HOSPITAL RD, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9008
Apollo Life Asset Gp, Llc 10 percent owner C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTER, 27 HOSPITAL RD, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9008
Aisg Gp Ltd. 10 percent owner C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTER, 27 HOSPITAL RD, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9008
Aviva Life & Annuity Co 10 percent owner 7700 MILLS CIVIC PARKWAY, WEST DES MOINES IA 50266
Apollo Insurance Solutions Group Lp 10 percent owner 2121 ROSECRANS AVE, STE 5300, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Lion Connecticut Holdings Inc. 10 percent owner ONE ORANGE WAY, WINDSOR CT 06095
Apollo Management Holdings Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Voya Financial, Inc. 10 percent owner 230 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10169
Apollo Capital Management Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Apollo Capital Management, L.p. 10 percent owner 9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019

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