What is GABELLI CONVERTIBLE &OME SECURITIES FUND Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
GABELLI CONVERTIBLE &OME SECURITIES FUND Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
GABELLI CONVERTIBLE &OME SECURITIES FUND (GABELLI CONVERTIBLE &OME SECURITIES FUND) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
One Corporate Center, Rye, NY, USA, 10580-1422
GABELLI CONVERTIBLE & INCOME SECURITIES FUND INC is a diversified closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to seek a high level of total return through a combination of current income and capital appreciation by investing in convertible securities. The company invests in various portfolios such as Health Care, Financial Services, Energy and Utilities, Telecommunications, Food and Beverage, Aerospace and Automotive and others. All the operation of the group is operated through the regions of United States.
Executives
| Mario J Gabelli |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman |
191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| John Birch |
director |
C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Peter D. Goldstein |
officer: Secretary |
249 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 503, PALM BEACH FL 33480 |
| Werner J Roeder |
director |
ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Daniel Diss Harding |
director |
C/O DINSMORE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO., 65 MADISON AVENUE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960 |
| Anthony S. Colavita |
director |
C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Michael J Melarkey |
director |
ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Dugald A Fletcher |
director |
111 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 1100, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| John Chester Ball |
officer: Treasurer |
800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854 |
| Leslie Fahrenkopf Foley |
director |
C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Kuni Nakamura |
director |
1 MARTIN BUTLER COURT, RYE NY 10580 |
| Vincent D Enright |
director |
ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Thomas H Dinsmore |
director |
C/O DINSMORE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 65 MADISON AVE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960 |
| Joseph H Egan |
officer: Acting Treasurer |
ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Salvatore J Zizza |
director |
810 SEVENTH AVE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
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