Flaherty & Crumrine Prefd Fund (Flaherty & Crumrine Prefd Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Flaherty & Crumrine Prefd Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Flaherty & Crumrine Prefd Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Flaherty & Crumrine Prefd Fund (Flaherty & Crumrine Prefd Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Flaherty & Crumrine Prefd Inc Fund Inc (NYSE:PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

301 E. Colorado Boulevard, Suite 800, Pasadena, CA, USA, 91101

Website

https://www.preferredincome.com

Flaherty & Crumrine Prefd Inc Fund Inc is a United States-based diversified, closed?end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide its common shareholders with a high current income consistent with the preservation of capital. The fund invests primarily in a diversified portfolio of preferred securities which includes traditional preferred stocks eligible for the inter-corporate dividends received a deduction and fully taxable preferred securities.

Executives

Robert F Wulf	director	301 E. COLORADO BLVD., SUITE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Karen Hanovice Hogan	director	301 EAST COLORADO BLVD, SUITE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Chad Conwell	officer: VP & Asst. Compliance Officer	301 E. COLORADO BLVD., SUITE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Robert M Ettinger	officer: President	301 E COLORADO BLVD STE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Donald F Crumrine	director, officer: Chairman of the Board	301 E COLORADO BLVD STE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Robert E Chadwick	officer: CFO, VP, Secretary, Treasurer	301 E COLORADO BLVD STE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Christopher Douglas Ryan	officer: Vice President	310 EAST COLORADO BLVD, SUITE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Martin Brody	director	C/O HMK ASSOCIATES, 30 COLUMBIA TURNPIKE, FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932
Laurie C Lodolo	officer: Asst CCO, Asst Treas, Asst Sec	301 E. COLORADO BOULEVARD, SUITE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
David Gale	director	220 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 426, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bradford S Stone	officer: Vice President, Asst Treasurer	47 MAPLE ST. SUITE 403, SUMMIT NJ 07901