What is Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund (Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6363 College Boulevard, Suite 100A, Overland Park, Leawood, KS, USA, 66211
Tortoise Pipeline & Energy Fund Inc is a non-diversified, closed-end investment management company. It invests in equity securities of North American pipeline companies that transport natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, and refined products. The company seeks to invest in fixed-income and dividend-paying equity securities of power and energy infrastructure companies that provide stable and defensive characteristics throughout economic cycles.
Executives
| Ciccotello Conrad S |
director |
5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
| Jennifer Paquette |
director |
5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
| H Kevin Birzer |
director |
5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
| Alexandra Herger |
director |
5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
| Matthew Sallee |
other: Member of Investment Committee |
5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
| Rand C Berney |
director |
11550 ASH STREET, SUITE 300, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
| P. Bradley Adams |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
| Brian Alan Kessens |
officer: President |
5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
| Shobana Gopal |
officer: Vice President |
5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
| Sean Paul Wickliffe |
officer: Vice President & Asst Treas. |
6363 COLLEGE BOULEVARD, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211 |
| Gengler Courtney |
officer: Vice President |
5200 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
| Ryan Channell |
officer: Vice President |
5100 W. 115TH PLACE, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
| James Ryan Mick |
other: Member of Investment Committee |
11550 ASH STREET, SUITE 300, LEAWOOD KS 66211 |
| Prudential Insurance Co Of America |
10 percent owner |
751 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Prudential Financial Inc |
10 percent owner |
751 BROAD ST, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
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