AdTheorent Holding Co (AdTheorent Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is AdTheorent Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AdTheorent Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AdTheorent Holding Co (AdTheorent Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » AdTheorent Holding Co Inc (NAS:ADTH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

330 Hudson Street, 13th Floor, New York, NY, USA, NY 10013

Website

https://www.adtheorent.com

AdTheorent Holding Co Inc is a digital media platform that focuses on performance-first, privacy-forward methods to execute programmatic digital advertising campaigns, serving both advertising agency and brand customers. Geographically it serves Canada, the United Kingdom and Others. Key revenue is earned from the United States.

Executives

Shuangxiu Yu	director	330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Joshua David Walsh	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Patrick Allen Elliott	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ADTHEORENT HOLDING COMPANY, INC., 330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Andrew L Anderson	officer: Chief Technology Officer	330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH, NEW YORK NY 10013
William James Todd	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH, NEW YORK NY 10013
Charles Jordan	officer: Secretary and Vice President	330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
H.i.g. Growth - Adtheorent, Llc	10 percent owner	1450 BRICKELL AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33131
James A Lawson	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Vineet Mehra	director	330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Theodore L Koenig	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MONROE CAPITAL CORPORATION, 311 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 6400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Richard Boghosian	director	330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Ben Tatta	director	330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Kihara Kiarie	director	330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Eric Tencer	director	330 HUDSON STREET, 13TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Zia Uddin	director	311 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 6400, CHICAGO IL 60606