Agrify (Agrify) Predictability Rank

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What is Agrify Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Agrify Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Agrify (Agrify) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Agrify Corp (NAS:AGFY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2468 Industrial Row Drive, Troy, MI, USA, 48084

Website

https://www.agrify.com

Agrify Corp provides hardware and software grow solutions for the indoor agriculture marketplace and provides equipment and solutions for cultivation, extraction, post-processing, and testing for the cannabis and hemp industry. The products offered by the company include Integrated Grow Racks, LED Grow Lights, Hydroponics, and Vertical Farming Units.

Executives

Brian Towns	officer: EVP - Extraction Division	76 TREBLE COVE RD., BUILDING 3, BILLERICA MA 01862
Raymond Nobu Chang	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & Chairman of the BOD	C/O AGRIFY CORPORATION, 101 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, SUITE 6, PMB 326, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Guichao Hua	director	C/O AGRIFY CORPORATION, 101 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, SUITE 6, PMB 326, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Timothy John Hayden	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	76 TREBLE COVE RD., BUILDING 3, BILLERICA MA 01862
Christopher J Benyo	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	76 TREBLE COVE RD., BUILDING 3, BILLERICA MA 01862
Max Holtzman	director	76 TREBLE COVE ROAD BUILDING 3, BILLERICA MA 01862
Steve Drucker	officer: Chief Information Officer	76 TREBLE COVE RD., BUILDING 3, BILLERICA MA 01862
David Aaron Kessler	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	76 TREBLE COVE RD., BUILDING 3, BILLERICA MA 01862
Leonard J Sokolow	director	REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WINDWARD THREE, 4TH FLOOR, WEST BAY ROAD, P.O. BOX 1114, GRAND CAYMAN E9 E9 KY11102
Stuart Anthony Wilcox	director	1 EAST ARMOUR BOULEVARD, KANSAS CITY MO 10178
Timothy Mahoney	director
Niv Krikov	officer: Chief Financial Officer	15 YOSEF KRONENBERG ST., REHOVOT L3 76662
Timothy Oakes	director	20 HARVARD MILL SQUARE, WAKEFIELD MA 01880
Robert Reed Harrison	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O AGRIFY CORPORATION, 101 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, SUITE 6, PMB 326, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Thomas L Massie	director	130 NEW BOSTON STREET, WOBURN MA 01801