Altra Industrial Motion (Altra Industrial Motion) Predictability Rank

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What is Altra Industrial Motion Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Altra Industrial Motion Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Altra Industrial Motion (Altra Industrial Motion) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Altra Industrial Motion Corp (NAS:AIMC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

300 Granite Street, Suite 201, Braintree, MA, USA, 02184

Website

https://www.altramotion.com

Altra Industrial Motion Corp is a United States-based company that designs, manufactures, and sells a wide range of electromechanical power transmission motion control. The company operates through two business segments based on product types and end markets served: the power transmission technologies segment and the automation and specialty segment. The company's product portfolio consists of products such as clutches, brakes, gears, and motion controllers and braking systems, which are used in heavy industrial applications, energy markets, medical, packaging, automation, robotic, and other industries. The company earns majority of its revenue in North America ( primarily the United States).

Executives

La Vonda Williams	director	201 MONTGOMERY STREET, #751, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Haughey Nicole Parent	director	UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, ONE FINANCIAL PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06101
Margot Hoffman	director	6368 CHAMPIONS DRIVE, WESTERVILLE OH 43082
Thomas W Swidarski	director	5995 MAYFAIR RD, P O BOX 3077, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Todd Patriacca	officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION INC., 300 GRANITE STREET, BRAINTREE MA 02184
Glenn E. Deegan	officer: Chief Legal and HR Officer	C/O ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION INC., 300 GRANITE STREET SUITE 201, BRAINTREE MA 02184
J Scott Hall	director	1200 ABERNATHY ROAD NE, SUITE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Christian Storch	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION, 300 GRANITE STREET SUITE 201, BRAINTREE MA 02184
Woodward James H Jr	director	7140 OFFICE CIRCLE, EVANSVILLE IN 47716
Craig Schuele	officer: VP Mktg&Bus Dev (see Remarks)	C/O ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION INC., 300 GRANITE STREET, BRAINTREE MA 02184
Carl R Christenson	officer: President and COO	C/O ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION INC., 300 GRANITE STREET, BRAINTREE MA 02184
Lyle G. Ganske	director	C/O ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION, INC., 300 GRANITE STREET SUITE 201, BRAINTREE MA 02184
Larry Mcpherson	director	C/O MEDICAL STAFFING NETWORK HOLDINGS, 901 YAMATO ROAD, SUITE 110, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Lipscomb S Michael	director	SIFCO INDUSTRIES, INC., 970 EAST 64TH STREET, CLEVELAND OH 44103
Patrick K Murphy	director	C/O FORTIVE CORPORATION, 6920 SEAWAY BOULEVARD, EVERETT WA 98203