a.k.a. Brands Holding (a.k.a. Brands Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is a.k.a. Brands Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

a.k.a. Brands Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

a.k.a. Brands Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

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a.k.a. Brands Holding (a.k.a. Brands Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp (NYSE:AKA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 Montgomery Street, Suite 1600, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94104

Website

https://www.aka-brands.com

a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp is an online fashion retailer focused on acquiring and accelerating the growth of next-generation, digitally native fashion brands targeting Gen Z and Millennial customers.

Executives

Ciaran Joseph Long	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O A.K.A. BRANDS HOLDING CORP., 100 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Myles B Mccormick	director	C/O BARE ESCENTUALS, INC., 71 STEVENSON STREET, 22ND FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Sourav Ghosh	director	6903 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, 15TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20817
Jill Elizabeth Ramsey	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O A.K.A. BRANDS HOLDING CORP., 100 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Ilene Eskenazi	director	10850 VIA FRONTERA, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
Simon Andrew Beard	director, 10 percent owner	1-3 LA SCALA COURT, SURFERS PARADISE C3 4217
Beard Trading Pty Ltd.	10 percent owner	1-3 LA SCALA COURT, SURFERS PARADISE C3 4217
Jonathan Edward Harvey	officer: See Remarks	C/O A.K.A. BRANDS HOLDING CORP, 100 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
John Robert Gonneville	officer: See Remarks	C/O A.K.A. BRANDS HOLDING CORP., 100 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bryett Enterprises Pty Ltd.	10 percent owner	5 SHORT ST., BURLEIGH HEADS C3 4220
Michael Frank Trembley	officer: See remarks	C/O A.K.A. BRANDS HOLDING CORP., 100 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Tah Nee Aleman Family Trust	10 percent owner	1-3 LA SCALA COURT, SURFERS PARADISE C3 4217
Tah-nee Beard	10 percent owner	1-3 LA SCALA COURT, SURFERS PARADISE C3 4217
Tf Apparel Discretionary Trust	10 percent owner	1-3 LA SCALA COURT, SURFERS PARADISE C3 4217
Summit Partners Growth Equity Fund Ix-a Aiv, L.p.	10 percent owner	222 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116