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Alon USA Energy (Alon USA Energy) Predictability Rank


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What is Alon USA Energy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Alon USA Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Alon USA Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Alon USA Energy (Alon USA Energy) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Alon USA Energy Inc Inc was incorporated under Delaware law in 2000. The company is an independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products, operates in South Central, Southwestern and Western regions of the United States. Its crude oil refineries are located in Texas, California and Louisiana and have a combined throughput capacity of approximately 214,000 barrels per day. It is also a marketer of asphalt, which it distributes through asphalt terminals located predominately in the Western United States. The company operates in three operating segments; refining and marketing, asphalt, and retail. Its refining and marketing segment includes sour and heavy crude oil refineries that are located in Big Spring, Texas; Paramount, Bakersfield and Long Beach, California; and a light sweet crude oil refinery located in Krotz Springs, Louisiana. It refines crude oil into petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, petrochemicals, petrochemical feedstocks, asphalt, and other petroleum-based products, which are marketed in the South Central, Southwestern and Western United States. Its Asphalt segment owns or operates approximately 11 asphalt terminals located in Texas ( Big Spring), Washington (Richmond Beach), California (Paramount, Long Beach, Elk Grove, Mojave and Bakersfield), Arizona (Phoenix and Flagstaff) as well as asphalt terminals in which it owns 50% interest located in Fernley, Nevada, and Brownwood, Texas. Its Retail segment operates approximately 306 owned and leased convenience store sites located in Central and West Texas and New Mexico. It also owns 7-Eleven licensee in the United States and have the exclusive right to use the 7-Eleven trade name in substantially all of its existing retail markets and many surrounding areas. It competes in the asphalt market with various refineries including Valero, Tesoro, U.S. Oil, Western, San Joaquin Refining, Ergon and HollyFrontier as well as regional and national asphalt marketing companies that have little or no associated refining operations. The Company's operations is subject to extensive and frequently changing federal, state, regional and local laws, regulations and ordinances relating to the protection of the environment, including those governing emissions or discharges to the air, water, and land, the handling and disposal of solid and hazardous waste and the remediation of contamination.
Executives
Frederec Green director 7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Assi Ginzburg director 7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Ezra Uzi Yemin director 7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Mark D Smith director 7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Avigal Soreq director 7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Ron W Haddock director 7616 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75251
Alan P Moret officer: Interim CEO 7616 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75251
Shai Even officer: Sr. VP and CFO 7616 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75251
William Jennings Kacal director 2112 INWOOD DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77019
Wallace P Eisman officer: President and CEO ONE MUSEUM PLACE, 3100 W. 7TH STREET, SUITE 500, FORT WORTH TX 76107
Delek Us Holdings, Inc. 10 percent owner 7102 COMMERCE WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Yonel Cohen director 12700 PARK CENTRAL DR STE 1600 DALLAS TX 75251
Joseph Israel officer: Chief Operating Officer 7616 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 300, DALLAS TX 75251
George Tracy Owens other: Controller 111 CONGRESS AVE., SUITE 2400, AUSTIN TX 78701

Alon USA Energy (Alon USA Energy) Headlines

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