Atlantic Avenue Acquisition (Atlantic Avenue Acquisition) Predictability Rank

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What is Atlantic Avenue Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Atlantic Avenue Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Atlantic Avenue Acquisition (Atlantic Avenue Acquisition) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Atlantic Avenue Acquisition Corp (NYSE:ASAQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2200 Atlantic Street, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902

Website

https://www.asaqspac.com

Atlantic Avenue Acquisition Corp is a newly organized blank check company.

Executives

Glazer Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH STREET, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019
Paul J Glazer	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH ST, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019
Thomas J Neff	director	SPENCER STUART & ASSOCIATES, 277 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10172
James M Dubin	director	ONE MADISON PLACE, HARRISON NY 10528
Halmi Robert A Jr	director	CROWN MEDIA HOLDINGS INC, 6430 S FIDDLERS GREEN CIR STE 500, ENGLEWOOD CO 80111
Ashok Nayyar	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer, Chair	930 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10028
Barry Best	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ATLANTIC STREET ACQUISITION CORP, 2200 ATLANTIC STREET, SUITE 501, STAMFORD CT 06902
Atlantic Street Partners Llc	10 percent owner	2200 ATLANTIC STREET, SUITE 501, STAMFORD CT 06902
David Gelobter	officer: Co-President & Secretary	C/O ATLANTIC STREET ACQUISITION CORP, 2200 ATLANTIC STREET, SUITE 501, STAMFORD CT 06902
Purvang Desai	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ATLANTIC STREET ACQUISITION CORP, 2200 ATLANTIC STREET, SUITE 501, STAMFORD CT 06902
Mark Field	director	C/O ATLANTIC STREET ACQUISITION CORP, 2200 ATLANTIC STREET, SUITE 501, STAMFORD CT 06902
Michael Russell Zimmerman	officer: Co-President	C/O ATLANTIC STREET ACQUISITION CORP, 2200 ATLANTIC STREET, SUITE 501, STAMFORD CT 06902
Atlantic Avenue Partners Gp Llc	10 percent owner	2200 ATLANTIC STREET, SUITE 501, STAMFORD CT 06902

Atlantic Avenue Acquisition (Atlantic Avenue Acquisition) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Atlantic Avenue Acquisition Corp Announces Separate Trading of Class A Common Stock and Warrants, Commencing October 15, 2020

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 10-13-2020

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