Bridge Bancorp (Bridge Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Bridge Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bridge Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bridge Bancorp (Bridge Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Bridge Bancorp Inc (NAS:BDGE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2200 Montauk Highway, PO Box 3005, Bridgehampton, NY, USA, 11932

Website

https://www.bnbbank.com

Bridge Bancorp Inc is a holding company. The Bank, through its subsidiary, engages in full-service commercial and consumer banking business, including accepting time, savings and demand deposits from the consumers, businesses and local municipalities in its market area. It services include business checking; business loan and mortgages; cash management; merchant services; title insurance services; foreign exchange services; equipment financing online banking and bill pay.

Executives

Basswood Capital Management, L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Nathan Lindenbaum	10 percent owner	C/O BASSWOOD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., 645 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Etzioni Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O BASSWOOD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10598
Raymond A Nielsen	director	BRIDGE BANCORP INC, 2200 MONTAUK HIGHWAY, BRIDGEHAMPTON NY 11932
Mgs Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O BASSWOOD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C, 645 MADISON AVENUE 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Financial Fund, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	3RD FL., HARBOUR CENTRE, P.O. BOX 61, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1102
Bennett D Lindenbaum	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Matthew A Lindenbaum	director, 10 percent owner	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Partners, L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Co-investment Fund, Ltd.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	3RD FLOOR, HARBOUR CENTRE, GEORGETOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1103
Daniel Rubin	director	2200 MONTAUK HIGHWAY, BRIDGEHAMPTON NY 11932
Basswood Enhanced Long Short Fund Lp	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Enhanced Long Short Gp, Llc	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Financial Long Only Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Financial Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022