Boxed (BOXDQ) Predictability Rank

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What is Boxed Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Boxed Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Boxed (BOXDQ) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Boxed Inc (OTCPK:BOXDQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

451 Broadway, Floor 2, New York, NY, USA, 10013

Website

https://www.boxed.com

Boxed Inc is an e-commerce platform selling bulk, high-repeat consumables to consumers and businesses. It offers wholesale products such as groceries, snacks, beverages, and household and cleaning products. It operates in two segments: Boxed Retail, which generates the majority revenue; and Boxed Software & Services. Retail segment engages in the sale of consumer products and goods in bulk sizes to consumers and businesses in the continental United States. Software & Services segment relates to its research, development, marketing, and production of our propriety software for sale to third parties.

Executives

Pamela B Corrie	director	100 PIER 1 PLACE, FORT WORTH TX 76102
David Michael Miller	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O GIDDY INC., 451 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Alison Weick	officer: President, E-Commerce	C/O GIDDY INC., 451 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Mark Zimowski	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O GIDDY INC., 451 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Jared Yaman	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O GIDDY INC., 451 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Chieh E. Huang	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O GIDDY INC., 451 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Tsukasa Ojima	director	C/O BOXED, INC., 451 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
David Liu	director	C/O XO GROUP INC., 195 BROADWAY, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10007
Andrew C. Pearson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	445 PARK AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Yun Jung Choi	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O BOXED, INC., 451 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Veracelle A Vega-hansen	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O BOXED, INC., 451 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Gary S Matthews	other: See Remarks	5433 WESTHEIMER ROAD, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77056
Acm Arrt Vii D Llc	10 percent owner	ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Harshul Sanghi	director	C/O GIDDY INC., 451 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Moore Emerson S. Ii	director	C/O GIDDY INC., 451 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013