China Foods Holdings (China Foods Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is China Foods Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Foods Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

China Foods Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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China Foods Holdings (China Foods Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » China Foods Holdings Ltd (OTCPK:CFOO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

26 Harbour Road, Room 2301A, China Resources Building, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

China Foods Holdings Ltd is a healthcare product distributing and marketing industry, developing and distributing health related products, including supplements, across the globe with a focus on mainland China, Europe and Australia. Its health products are designed to help enhance immunity and improve general wellbeing. The company has two segments; the Healthcare segment and the Wine segment. The healthcare segment mainly provides health consulting advisory services and healthcare and wellness products, such as Nutrition Catering, Special Health Food, Health supplements, and Skincare. The wine segment involves the sale of wine products. The majority of the company's revenue is generated from the Healthcare segment.

Executives

Xiao Jun Kong	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and CFO	SHUI ON CENTRE, 6-8 HARBOUR RD. UNIT 906 9/F WANCHAI K3 0000
Cheng-ni Hu	director	28 MACHANG ROAD TIANHE DISTRICT GUANGZHOU F4 510000
Yang Liu	director	EVERBRITE CENTRE SUITE 3102 108 GLOUCESTER ROAD HONG KONG K3 00000
Yunsi Liu	director, officer: President	EVERBRITE CENTRE SUITE 3102 108 GLOUCESTER ROAD HONG KONG K3 00000
Hy (hk) Financial Investments Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner	SHUI ON CENTRE, 6-8 HARBOUR RD. UNIT 906 9/F WANCHAI K3 0000
Sean Escobar	director, officer: Vice President	10344 SOUTH SILVER WILLOW DRIVE SANDY UT 84070
Anthony B Escobar	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	PO BOX 2017 SANDY UT 84091-2017
Anthony P Coletti	director, officer: Chief Accounting Officer	3032 WEST HARPER PEAK COURT SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095

China Foods Holdings (China Foods Holdings) Headlines

From GuruFocus

China Foods Holdings (CFOO) CEO and CFO Xiao Jun Kong Bought $4.5 million of Shares

By [email protected] insider • 07-10-2020