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Cascade Microtech (Cascade Microtech) Predictability Rank


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What is Cascade Microtech Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Cascade Microtech Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cascade Microtech Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cascade Microtech (Cascade Microtech) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Cascade Microtech Inc was incorporated in the state of Oregon in 1984. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets wafer probing solutions for the electrical measurement and testing of high performance semiconductor devices. Its product enables precision on-wafer measurement of integrated circuits. It is also used in production applications to test semiconductor devices prior to completion of the manufacturing process. It operates in two business segments: Systems and Probes. Sales of its probe stations are included in the Systems segment and sales of its analytical probes and production probe cards are included in the Probes segment. It operates in Oregon, Minnesota and Dresden, Germany, with sales, service and support centers in North America, Germany, Japan, Taiwan, China and Singapore. It designs, manufactures and sells multiple product lines, including probe stations, thermal subsystems, reliability test systems, analytical probes, production probe cards and various services and accessories. Its products are used by semiconductor manufacturers, test subcontractors, research organizations and designers. The Company sells its probe stations, thermal subsystems, reliability test systems, analytical probes, and production probe cards through a combination of manufacturers' representatives, distributors and direct sales people. The competitors of the company include Vector Semiconductor Co. Ltd., Signatone Corporation, MPI Corporation, Tokyo Seimitsu Co., LTD/Accretech, Tokyo Electron ("TEL"), The Micromanipulator Company Inc. and Wentworth Laboratories Inc., among others. In the market for thermal subsystems, it competes against ERS Electronic, GmbH, Temptronic Environmental Test Chambers and Espec Corp. Its reliability test products compete against a number of competitors including Qualitau, Inc., STAr Technologies, Inc., Reedholm Instruments Co. and Chiron technology Pte. Ltd. It is subject to federal, state and local laws and regulations.
Executives
William Spivey director
John D Delafield director, 10 percent owner 1301 SECOND AVENUE, SUITE 2850, SEATTLE WA 98101
Raymond A Link director C/O FORMFACTOR, INC., 7005 SOUTHFRONT ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Michael D Burger officer: President and CEO 250 TECHNOLOGY PARK, LAKE MARY FL 32746
Jeffrey A Killian officer: CFO, VP Finance C/O RESONANT INC. 175 CREMONA DRIVE, SUITE 200 GOLETA CA 93117
Keith Barnes director 10100 N TANTAU AVE, CUPERTINO CA 95014-2540
Rgm Capital, Llc other: Shareholder 9010 STRADA STELL COURT, SUITE 105, NAPLES FL 34109
Robert G Moses other: Shareholder RGM CAPITAL, LLC, 9010 STRADA STELL COURT, SUITE 105, NAPLES FL 34109
Laurence W Lytton 10 percent owner 467 CENTRAL PARK WEST, NY NY 10025
Geoffrey Wild director, officer: President and CEO 108 CHERRY HILL DRIVE, BEVERLY MA 01915

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