Computer Task Group (Computer Task Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1978. Start your Free Trial

What is Computer Task Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Computer Task Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Computer Task Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Computer Task Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Computer Task Group (Computer Task Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Computer Task Group Inc (NAS:CTG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

300 Corporate Parkway, Suite 214N, Amherst, NY, USA, 14226

Website

https://www.ctg.com

Computer Task Group Inc is engaged in providing information technology services to its clients. The company divides its services into information technology solutions and information technology & other staffing. Its segments include North America IT Solutions and Services, Europe IT Solutions and Services, and Non-Strategic Technology Services. The firm derives most of its revenues from information technology & other staffing services. It mainly caters its services to technology service providers, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, and energy industries. The geographical segments are the United States, Luxembourg, Belgium, and other countries.

Executives

Thomas J Niehaus	officer: Executive Vice President	300 CORPORATE PARKWAY SUITE 214N, AMHERST NY 14226
Gyde Filip J L	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O COMPUTER TASK GROUP INC, 800 DELAWARE AVE, BUFFALO NY 14209
Raj Rajgopal	director	C/O VIRTUSA CORPORATION, 2000 WEST PARK DRIVE, WESTBOROUGH MA 01581
Helvey Iii James R	director	300 CORPORATE PARKWAY SUITE 214N, AMHERST NY 14226
Kathryn A Stein	director	300 CORPORATE PARKWAY SUITE 214N, AMHERST NY 14226
Daniel J Sullivan	director
Valerie Rahmani	director	300 CORPORATE PARKWAY SUITE 214N, AMHERST NY 14226
Owen J Sullivan	director	5301 NORTH IRONWOOD ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53217
David H Klein	director	300 CORPORATE PARKWAY SUITE 214N, AMHERST NY 14226
Jeffrey D Gerkin	officer: Executive Vice President	800 DELAWARE AVENUE, BUFFALO NY 14209
John M Laubacker	officer: Chief Financial Officer & SVP	300 CORPORATE PARKWAY SUITE 214N, AMHERST NY 14226
Peter P Radetich	officer: Sr Vice President & Secretary	300 CORPORATE PARKWAY SUITE 214N, AMHERST NY 14226
Brendan M Harrington	officer: Chief Financial Officer Sr VP	800 DELAWARE AVENUE, BUFFALO NY 14209
Cliff Bleustein	director, officer: President & CEO	800 DELAWARE AVENUE, BUFFALO NY 14209
Alfred Hamilton	officer: Vice President	800 DELAWARE AVENUE, BUFFALO NY 14209