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DA32 Life Science Tech Acquisition (DA32 Life Science Tech Acquisition) Predictability Rank


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What is DA32 Life Science Tech Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DA32 Life Science Tech Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

DA32 Life Science Tech Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

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DA32 Life Science Tech Acquisition (DA32 Life Science Tech Acquisition) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » DA32 Life Science Tech Acquisition Corp (NAS:DALS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
GTAC FHLT SHAP QFTA SRSA PRLH CRZN TCAC OPA VHNA GSHN PSTH XAMS:EPIC ASZ CCYC CVII KAHC DWAC IPOF PBAJ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
345 Park Avenue South, 12th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10010
Website
DA32 Life Science Tech Acquisition Corp is a blank check company formed for the purpose of effecting a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses.
Executives
Da32 Sponsor Llc 10 percent owner 345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Deerfield Management Company, L.p. (series C) director, 10 percent owner, other: Director by deputization 345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Arch Venture Fund Xi, L.p. 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Section 32 Fund 3, Lp 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization 169 UNIVERSITY AVE., PALO ALTO CA 94301
Keith Crandell director, 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
William J Maris 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization 2033 SAN ELIJO AVE., #565, CARDIFF-BY-THE-SEA CA 92007
Angela Lai director 345 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Arch Venture Partners Xi, Llc 10 percent owner 8755 W HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Arch Venture Partners Xi, L.p. 10 percent owner 8755 W HIGGINS RD., SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Section 32 Gp 3, Llc 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization 171 MAIN STREET, #671, LOS ALTOS CA 94022
Steven J. Kafka director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O FOUNDATION MEDICINE, INC., ONE KENDALL SQUARE, SUITE B3501, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Andrew Elbardissi director 2210 FARADAY AVE #100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Chris Wolfe officer: Chief Financial Officer 230 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 11TH FLOOR, C/O CAPITAL Z PARTNERS, NEW YORK NY 10003
Kristina Burow 10 percent owner 8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Mara G. Aspinall director 7381 NORTH MOON SPIRIT LANE, TUCSON AZ 85718