DICE Therapeutics (DICE Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is DICE Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DICE Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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DICE Therapeutics (DICE Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » DICE Therapeutics Inc (NAS:DICE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

400 East Jamie Court, Suite 300, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.dicetherapeutics.com

DICE Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company leveraging proprietary technology platform to build a pipeline of novel oral therapeutic candidates to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. The company is initially focused on developing oral therapeutics against well-validated targets in immunology, with the goal of achieving comparable potency to systemic biologic counterparts, which have demonstrated the greatest therapeutic benefit to date in these disease areas.

Executives

Northpond Ventures Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	7500 OLD GEORGETOWN ROAD, SUITE 850, BETHESDA MD 20814
John R. Jacobsen	officer: CSO	C/O DICE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 279 E. GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 300, LOBBY B, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Richard H Scheller	director	C/O GENENTECH INC, 1 DNA WAY MS 49, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080-4990
Scott M. Robertson	officer: CFO & CBO	C/O DICE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 279 E. GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 300, LOBBY B, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Lu Timothy	officer: CMO	C/O DICE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 279 E. GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 300, LOBBY B, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Kevin Judice	director, officer: CEO	6310 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
James Paul Scopa	director	601 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 350, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Lisa Bowers	director	C/O DICE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 279 E. GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 300, LOBBY B, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Mittie Doyle	director	C/O DICE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 279 E. GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 300, LOBBY B, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Michael P. Rubin	10 percent owner	7500 OLD GEORGETOWN ROAD, SUITE 850, BETHESDA MD 20814
Shaan-chirag C Gandhi	director	NORTHPOND VENTURES, 7500 OLD GEORGETOWN ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20814
Northpond Ventures Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	7500 OLD GEORGETOWN ROAD, SUITE 850, BETHESDA MD 20814
Northpond Ventures Gp Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	7500 OLD GEORGETOWN ROAD, SUITE 850, BESTHESDA MD 20814
Stephen Zachary	director	C/O ACUMEN PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 427 PARK STREET, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902