Social Capital Suvretta Holdings III (Social Capital Suvretta Holdings III) Predictability Rank

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What is Social Capital Suvretta Holdings III Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings III Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings III Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Social Capital Suvretta Holdings III (Social Capital Suvretta Holdings III) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp III (NAS:DNAC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2850 W. Horizon Ridge Parkway, Suite 200, Henderson, NV, USA, 89052

Website

https://www.socialcapitalsuvrettaholdings.com

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp III is a blank check company.

Executives

Jennifer A. Fox	director	C/O NUVATION BIO INC., 1500 BROADWAY, SUITE 1401, NEW YORK NY 10036
Sc Pipe Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	506 SANTA CRUZ AVE., SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Tolerantia, Llc	10 percent owner	110 EAST 59TH STREET, SUITE 3300, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jimenez Santos Jose Ignacio	director	C/O PROKIDNEY CORP., 3929 WESTPOINT BLVD., SUITE G, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27103
Deepak Jain	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O PROKIDNEY CORP., 3929 WESTPOINT BLVD., SUITE G, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27103
Darin J. Weber	officer: SVP of Regulatory Development	C/O PROKIDNEY CORP., 3929 WESTPOINT BLVD., SUITE G, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27103
Libbie Parker Mckenzie	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O PROKIDNEY CORP., 3929 WESTPOINT BLVD., SUITE G, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27103
James Coulston	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PROKIDNEY CORP., 3929 WESTPOINT BLVD., SUITE G, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27103
Sc Master Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	506 SANTA CRUZ AVENUE, SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Alan Lotvin	director	55 NOD ROAD, AVON CT 06001
Timothy Bertram	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TENGION, INC., 2900 POTSHOP LANE, SUITE 100, EAST NORRITON PA 19403
Todd C Girolamo	officer: Chief Legal Officer	110 ALLEN ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, BASKING RIDGE NJ 07920
Uma Sinha	director	C/O EIDOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 101 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 2550, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94101
Control Empresarial De Capitales S.a. De C.v.	10 percent owner	INSURGENTES SUR #3500, PB, COL. PENA POBRE, DELEGACION TLALPAN, CP, MEXICO D.F. O5 14060
Pablo G. Legorreta	director, 10 percent owner	110 E 59TH STREET, SUITE 3300, NEW YORK NY 10022