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Social Capital Suvretta Holdings IV (Social Capital Suvretta Holdings IV) Predictability Rank


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What is Social Capital Suvretta Holdings IV Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings IV Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings IV Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Social Capital Suvretta Holdings IV's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings IV (Social Capital Suvretta Holdings IV) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp IV (NAS:DNAD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NPAB RVAC DNAB RCLF TEKK LOKM ASAQ CLIN FLYA BYN GSHN PSTH XAMS:EPIC ASZ CCYC CVII KAHC DWAC IPOF PBAJ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2850 W. Horizon Ridge Parkway, Suite 200, Henderson, NV, USA, 89052
Website
Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp IV is a newly incorporated blank check company.
Executives
William J Newell director 887 GREAT NORTHERN WAY, VANCOUVER A1 V5T 4T5
Biren Amin director C/O IMMUNEERING CORPORATION, 245 MAIN STREET, SECOND FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Steven Marc Solomon director 584 THE ALAMEDA, BERKELEY CA 94707
Amit Munshi director C/O EPIRUS BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 699 BOYLSTON STREET, 8TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
James Ryans officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O SOCIAL CAPITAL, 120 HAWTHORNE AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Chamath Palihapitiya other: Manager THE SOCIAL-CAPITAL PARTNERSHIP, L.L.C., 506 SANTA CRUZ AVENUE, SUITE 300, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Kishan Mehta other: Manager 540 WEST 49TH STREET, UNIT# PH1N, NEW YORK NY 10019
Shoney Katz officer: Director of Research 22 CORNELIA DRIVE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Aaron Cowen other: Manager of Minority Owner 540 MADISON AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Scs Sponsor Iv Llc director, 10 percent owner 2850 W. HORIZON RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 200, HENDERSON NV 89052
Chachacha Dna Iv, Llc other: Majority Owner 317 UNIVERSITY AVE, SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94301

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings IV (Social Capital Suvretta Holdings IV) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. IV Announces Pricing of Upsized $220,000,000 Initial Public Offering

By Business Wire Business Wire • 06-30-2021