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Energroup Holdings (Energroup Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is Energroup Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Energroup Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Energroup Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Energroup Holdings (Energroup Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Energroup Holdings Corp (OTCPK:ENHD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
BOM:539528 BOM:532070 BOM:519483 XBUL:C81 BOM:531067 BOM:540698 NSE:CKPPRODUCT LFER WAR:ROV BOM:541741 BOM:504335 XSAT:SPIRA BOM:519383 BOM:539291 XBRU:FOU BOM:533896 XPAR:MLSRP TSE:2586 IST:VANGD BOM:540404
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No.9,Xin Yi Street, Ganjingzi District, Dalian, Liaoning, CHN, 116039
Website
http://www.energycompositescorp.com
Energroup Holdings Corp is engaged in the production, processing, sale and distribution of fresh and prepared meat products in China.
Executives
Wenbing Wang director 21ST FLOOR, BUILDING B, JIA MING CENTER, NO. 27 DONG SAN HUAN NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100020
Yizhao Zhang officer: Chief Financial Officer 45 OLD MILLSTONE DRIVE, NIT 6, EAST WINDSOR NJ 08520
Thomas J Howells other: resigned as director 4685 SOUTH HIGHLAND DRIVE # 202, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84117
Timothy P Halter director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Pres, CFO, C of B, Scty 174 FM 1830, ARGYLE TX 76226
George L Diamond 10 percent owner 174 FM 1830, ARGYLE TX 76226
David F Brigante 10 percent owner 174FM 1830, ARGYLE TX 76226
Marat Rosenberg 10 percent owner 17 FM 1830, ARGYLE TX 76226
Halter Financial Investments Lp 10 percent owner 174 FM 1830, ARGYLE TX 76226
Halter Financial Investments Gp Llc 10 percent owner 174 FM 1830, ARGYLE TX 76226
Duane S Jenson 10 percent owner 4685 SOUTH HIGHLAND DRIVE # 202, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111

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