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Empowerment &lusion Capital I (Empowerment &lusion Capital I) Predictability Rank


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What is Empowerment &lusion Capital I Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Empowerment &lusion Capital I Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Empowerment &lusion Capital I Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Empowerment &lusion Capital I (Empowerment &lusion Capital I) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Empowerment & Inclusion Capital I Corp (NYSE:EPWR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NFNT ADEX KAIR POW ADER MDH SWET CPTK PACI GGMC GSHN PSTH XAMS:EPIC ASZ CCYC CVII KAHC DWAC IPOF PBAJ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
340 Madison Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10173
Website
https://www.empowermentandinclusion.com
Empowerment & Inclusion Capital I Corp is a blank-check company. It is formed for the purpose of merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses or entities.
Executives
Marjorie Rodgers Cheshire director 1040 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 300, BALTIMORE MD 21201
Andrea L Zopp director 3333 BEVERLY ROAD, C/O SEARS ROEBUCK & CP, HOFFMAN ESTATE IL 60179
Richard Kevin Bynum director 7567 GLEN POINTE CT., SPRINGFIELD VA 22153
Toni Townes-whitley director 8340 SPRINGHAVEN GARDEN LANE, MCLEAN, VA X1 22102
Virginia Henkels 10 percent owner, officer: CFO and Secretary SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY, 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85043
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. 10 percent owner 520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ford Harold Eugene Jr. director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman 4921 WILLIAM ARNOLD ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38117
Pnc Financial Services Group, Inc. 10 percent owner THE TOWER AT PNC PLAZA, 300 FIFTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222-2401
Gagan Singh director C/O THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, 340 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10173
Laura L Long director C/O THE TOWER AT PNC, 300 FIFTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Pnc Investment Capital Corp. 10 percent owner C/O THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, 340 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10173
Stephanie M Phillipps director C/O THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, 340 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10173
Margaret B Smith director C/O THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, 340 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10173