Envirotech Vehicles (Envirotech Vehicles) Predictability Rank

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What is Envirotech Vehicles Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Envirotech Vehicles Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Envirotech Vehicles Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Envirotech Vehicles (Envirotech Vehicles) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Envirotech Vehicles Inc (NAS:EVTV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1425 Ohlendorf Road, Osceola, AR, USA, 72370

Website

https://www.evtvusa.com

Envirotech Vehicles Inc is a provider of purpose-built zero-emission electric vehicles focused on reducing the total cost of vehicle ownership and helping fleet operators unlock the benefits of green technology. It recognizes revenue from the sales of zero-emission electric vehicles and vehicle maintenance and inspection services.

Executives

Douglas M Campoli	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ENVIROTECH VEHICLES, INC., 1425 OHLENDORF ROAD, OSCEOLA AR 72370
Susan Marie Emry	officer: EVP/CFO	1215 GRAPHITE DRIVE, CORONA CA 92881
Phillip Oldridge	director, officer: CEO	7000 MERRILL AVENUE, SUITE 31, CHINO NV 91710
Di Pietro Michael A	director	14245 PIPELINE AVE, CHINO CA 91710
Melissa Barcellos	director	1215 GRAPHITE DRIVE, CORONA CA 92881
Gary W Nettles	director	620 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1100, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
John Perkowski	director	TYG CENTER TOWER B, SUITE 2601, DONG SAN HUAN BEI LU BING 2, BEIJING F4 100027
Richard A. Eckert	officer: Chief Operating Officer	620 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1100, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Michael K. Menerey	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	620 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1100, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
James L. Reynolds	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	620 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE SUITE 1100, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Kevin G. Kanning	officer: VP of IR & Business Dev.	620 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE SUITE 1100, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Janet L. Boydell	director	620 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1100, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
John H. Roselli	officer: VP of Sales and Marketing	620 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1100, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Edward R. Monfort	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer	620 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1100, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660