Forest City Realty Trust (Forest City Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Forest City Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Forest City Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Forest City Realty Trust (Forest City Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Forest City Realty Trust Inc (OTCPK:FCEPP.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.forestcity.net

Forest City Realty Trust Inc is engaged in the ownership, development, management and acquisition of commercial and residential real estate and land throughout the United States. The company's segments include the Commercial Group, Residential Group, Land Development Group and Corporate Activities. It operates mixed-use projects such as residential rental properties, regional malls, specialty/urban retail centers, office and life science buildings and others. In addition, it also engaged in acquiring and sale of both land and developed lots to residential, commercial and industrial clients. Revenue for the group is derived from the source of rental, service and management fees and land sales.

Executives

James A Ratner	10 percent owner, officer: Executive Vice President	50 PUBLIC SQUARE SUITE 1100, CLEVELAND OH 44113
Charles A Ratner	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board	50 PUBLIC SQUARE SUITE 1100, CLEVELAND OH 44113
Scott S Cowen	director	7=6823 ST CHARLES AVE, NEW ORLEANS LA 70118
David J Larue	director, officer: CEO & President	50 PUBLIC SQUARE SUITE 1100, CLEVELAND OH 44113
Kenneth J Bacon	director	5404 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 410, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Arthur F Anton	director	29500 SOLON ROAD, SOLON OH 44139
Christine Rose Detrick	director	200 CLARENDON STREET, T-9, BOSTON MA 02116
Deborah Ratnersalzberg	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Vice President	301 WATER ST SE SUITE 201, WASHINGTON DC 20003
Albert B Ratner	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chairman of the Board	50 PUBLIC SQUARE 1100, CLEVELAND OH 44113