Finish Line (Finish Line) Predictability Rank

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What is Finish Line Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Finish Line Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Finish Line (Finish Line) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Finish Line Inc (NAS:FINL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.finishline.com

Finish Line is a United States-based specialty retailer that is principally engaged in the sale of athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories, with presence in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia. The company operates business through physical stores and digital formats under two brands: Finish Line and JackRabbit. Finish Line is a mall-based retailer offering brand names including Nike, Brand Jordan, Adidas, Under Armour, and Puma. JackRabbit is a lifestyle community-based retailer offering brand names, such as Brooks, Asics, Nike, Saucony, New Balance, and others. The company also operates unbranded stores at Macy's, without Finish Line signage. The company generates the majority of its total net sales from the Finish Line division.

Executives

Torrence Boone	director	3308 N MITTHOEFFER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46235
Richard P Crystal	director	THE FINISH LINE 3308 N. MITTHOEFFER RD. INDIANAPOLIS IN 46235
William P Carmichael	director	3308 N. MITTHOEFFER ROAD, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46235
Imran Jooma	officer: EVP, Div Pres, Omni Strat	3333 BEVERLY ROAD HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
Alan H Cohen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board	3308 MITTHOEFFER RD, C/O THE FINISH LINE INC, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46236
Schultze Asset Management, Llc	10 percent owner	3000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
George J Schultze	10 percent owner	C/O SCHULTZE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, 3000 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
Kevin S Wampler	officer: Executive Vice President - CFO	3308 N MITTHOEFFER RD, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46235
Jeffrey H Smulyan	director