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First Potomac Realty Trust (First Potomac Realty Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is First Potomac Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Potomac Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

First Potomac Realty Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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First Potomac Realty Trust (First Potomac Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » First Potomac Realty Trust (NYSE:FPO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CIO XPAR:EIFF JSE:IAP ASX:GDI TSE:3290 HKSE:01426 XPAR:CGR XBRU:LEAS NRE TSX:TNT.UN BKK:GVREIT FSP XPAR:INEA SGX:UD1U ASX:ADI XMAD:ARM XKRX:293940 ASX:AOF TSX:SOT.UN BKK:TPRIME
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.first-potomac.com
First Potomac Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership, management, and development of commercial properties in the greater Washington D.C. area. The company's real estate portfolio is primarily composed of a mix of single-tenant and multi-tenant office properties and business parks. These assets are fairly evenly distributed between the Washington D.C., Maryland, Northern Virginia, and Southern Virginia regions in terms of square footage. First Potomac derives the vast majority of its revenue in the form of rental income from tenants. Most of this revenue comes from its properties located in Maryland and Northern Virginia. The company's largest tenants are U.S. government entities and government contractors.
Executives
Andrew P Blocher officer: EVP, CFO 7600 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Thomas E Robinson other: Trustee 309 GARRISON FOREST ROAD, OWNINGS MILLS MD 21117
Terry L Stevens other: Trustee 3100 SMOKETREE COURT, SUITE 600, RALEIGH NC 27604
Michael H Comer officer: SVP, CAO FIRST POTOMAC REALTY TRUST, 7600 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Robert H Arnold other: Trustee 129 E.69TH ST., NEW YORK NY 10021
Robert Milkovich officer: President, CEO and COO 7600 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Samantha Sacks Gallagher officer: EVP and General Counsel C/O VICI PROPERTIES INC., 535 MADISON AVE 20TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kati M. Penney other: Trustee C/O FIRST POTOMAC REALTY TRUST, 7600 WISCONSIN AVE, 11TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
James P Hoffmann other: Trustee FIRST POTOMAC REALTY TRUST, 7600 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Alan G Merten other: Trustee 11020 POPES HEAD ROAD, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Richard B Chess other: Trustee 3821 DARBY DR, MIDLOTHIAN VA 23113
Douglas J Donatelli officer: CEO C/O FIRST POTOMAC REALTY TRUST, 7600 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Nicholas R Smith officer: EVP, CIO C/O FIRST POTOMAC REALTY TRUST, 7600 WISCONSIN AVE, 11TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
R Michael Mccullough other: Trustee 8270 GREENSBORO DR STE 950, MCLEAN VA 22102
Heller J Roderick Iii other: Trustee C/O FIRST POTOMAC REALTY TRUST, 7600 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814

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