Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Ann Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ann's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Ann Inc was incorporated in the State of Delaware in 1988 and changed its name to ANN INC. in March 2011. The Company through its wholly-owned subsidiaries is a specialty retailer of women's apparel, shoes and accessories sold mainly under the Ann Taylor and LOFT brands. The Company has four operating segments including Ann Taylor, LOFT, Ann Taylor Factory and LOFT Outlet. Ann Taylor is a luxury brand that offers modern style while remaining true to its legacy as a destination for every generation of working women, with timeless wear-now and wear-to-work fashion of impeccable quality at compelling prices. LOFT provides fashion that delivers feminine appeal, special and unexpected details, and a flattering fit, making its client's style aspirations attainable. The Company's Ann Taylor and LOFT stores offer career and casual separates, dresses, tops, weekend wear, shoes and accessories, coordinated as part of a strategy to provide modern styles that are versatile across all occasions and needs. It also offer updated past season best sellers from the Ann Taylor and LOFT merchandise collections at its Ann Taylor Factory and LOFT Outlet stores, respectively. In addition to its stores, its clients can shop online at www.anntaylor.com and www.LOFT.com. The AnnTaylor, LOFT and AnnTaylor Loft trademarks are registered with the United States Patent and Trademark Office and with the trademark registries of many foreign countries. The Company's stores compete with certain departments in international, national and local department stores and with other specialty stores, catalog and internet businesses that offer similar categories of merchandise.
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