GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co (FRA:DUP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

E.I. du Pont de Nemours (FRA:DUP) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is E.I. du Pont de Nemours Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

E.I. du Pont de Nemours Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

E.I. du Pont de Nemours Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of E.I. du Pont de Nemours's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

E.I. du Pont de Nemours (FRA:DUP) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co (FRA:DUP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TSX:NTR CTVA FMC OSL:YAR SAU:2020 SMG SZSE:000792 CF MIC:PHOR XTAE:ICL MOS SHSE:600426 NSE:UPL SHSE:600486 MIC:AKRN SZSE:000553 NSE:PIIND BOM:506285 BOM:506395 MIC:URKA
Traded in Other Exchanges
CTApB.PFD:USA CTApA.PFD:USA
Address
9330 Zionsville Road, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46268
Website
https://www.dupont.com
EIDP Inc formerly, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co provides Agricultural solutions to the farmers. The company operates in two segments: seed and crop protection. The seed segment develops and supplies commercial seed combining superior germplasm with advanced traits to produce high yield potential for farmers, while the crop protection segment supplies products to protect crop yields against weeds, insects, and disease. Some of its products include Corn, Soybean, oilseeds, Fungicides, Herbicides, and Insecticides. Its geographical segments include North America, EMEA(Europe, the Middle East, and Africa), Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. Nearly half of the revenue comes from North America.

E.I. du Pont de Nemours (FRA:DUP) Headlines

No Headlines