Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Hercules Offshore Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Hercules Offshore Predictability Rank Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Hercules Offshore's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Hercules Offshore Inc is a Delaware corporation formed on July 27, 2004. The Company provides shallow-water drilling and marine services to the oil and natural gas exploration and production industry. It provides services to national oil and gas companies, to integrated energy companies and oil and natural gas operators. Its diverse fleet is capable of providing services such as oil and gas exploration and development drilling, well service, platform inspection, maintenance and decommissioning operations in several key shallow-water provinces. Its business segments includes: Domestic Offshore, International Offshore, and International Liftboats. Domestic Offshore includes 18 jackup rigs in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico that can drill in maximum water depths ranging from 120 to 350 feet. Nine of the jackup rigs are either under contract or available for contracts and nine are cold stacked. International Offshore includes nine jackup rigs outside of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The Company has three jackup rigs contracted offshore in Saudi Arabia, one jackup rig contracted offshore in Congo, one jackup rig ready stacked and one jackup rig warm stacked in Gabon, one jackup ready stacked in the Netherlands and one jackup rig warm stacked in Malaysia. Additionally, the Company has one newbuild jackup rig under construction in Singapore that is expected to be delivered in the second quarter of 2016. International Liftboats - includes 19 liftboats. Fifteen are operating or available for contracts offshore West Africa, one is cold stacked offshore West Africa and three are operating or available for contracts in the Middle East region. Its customers include integrated energy companies, independent oil and natural gas operators and national oil companies. The Company is subject to the jurisdiction of the Coast Guard, the National Transportation Safety Board, the Customs and Boarder Protection, the Department of Interior, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement as well as private industry organizations such as the American Bureau of Shipping.
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