What is Thomas Properties Group, Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Thomas Properties Group, Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Thomas Properties Group, Predictability Rank Related Terms
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Thomas Properties Group, (FRA:LQH) Business Description
Thomas Properties Group, Inc., is a Delaware corporation incorporated on March 9, 2004. The Company is a full-service real estate operating company that owns, acquires, develops and manages mainly office, as well as mixed-use and residential properties on a nationwide basis. Its main areas of focus are the acquisition and ownership of interests in premier properties, property development and redevelopment, and investment and property management activities. It conducts its business through its Operating Partnership and it has control over the major decisions of the Operating Partnership. The properties it owns interests in or manages on behalf of third parties are located in Southern California and Sacramento, California; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Northern Virginia; Houston, Texas; and Austin, Texas. The Company owns interests in and asset manage 17 operating properties with 10.3 million rentable square feet and provide leasing, asset and/or property management services on behalf of third parties for an additional five operating properties with 2.6 million rentable square feet. It also has a direct and indirect ownership interests in developable land with various allowable uses, including office development, totaling approximately 3.4 million square feet. Additionally, the Company developed Murano, a 302- unit high-rise residential condominium project in downtown Philadelphia. The Company has offices in Los Angeles and Sacramento, California; Austin and Houston, Texas; Northern Virginia and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. It focuses on increasing net revenues from the properties. It leverages its property acquisition and development expertise through partnerships and joint ventures. These entities provides the company with additional capital for investment, shared risk exposure, and earned fees for asset management, property management, leasing and other services. The Company faces competition from diversified real estate companies and companies focused solely on offering property investment management and brokerage services. The Company is subject to Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law.
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