Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Revett Mining Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Revett Mining Co Predictability Rank Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Revett Mining Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Revett Mining Co Inc formerly Revett Minerals Inc., was incorporated in August 2004. The Company is a silver-copper producer. It owns and operates the producing Troy Mine and the development-stage Rock Creek project; both properties are located in northwestern Montana. Its mining properties are Troy and Rock Creek. Troy an is underground silver and copper mine located in Lincoln County, Montana, approximately fifteen miles south of the town of Troy. Rock Creek is a large exploration-stage silver and copper property located in Sanders County, Montana, approximately five miles northeast of Noxon, Montana. The mine operation comprises 24 patented lode-mining claims, 510 unpatented lode-mining claims, approximately 850 acres of fee land and approximately 394 acres of patented claim land. The Company also owns two unpatented claim groups in nearby areas of Sanders County, the Vermillion River and the Sims Creek properties, which comprise approximately 1,660 acres and are located approximately 25 miles southeast of Rock Creek. Limited drilling was conducted by the previous owner of the Vermillion River claim group. Additionally, it also owns approximately 673 acres of fee land that will be used for mitigation as the Rock Creek project is developed. The Company is subject to a variety of federal, state and local statutes, rules and regulations designed to protect the quality of the air and water, and threatened or endangered species in the vicinity of its mining operations.
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