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FAST Acquisition (FAST Acquisition) Predictability Rank


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What is FAST Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FAST Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

FAST Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

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FAST Acquisition (FAST Acquisition) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » FAST Acquisition Corp (NYSE:FST.U) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PHYT ARTE WQGA MLAI GHAC BITE GVCI SMIH GEEX RCHG GSHN PSTH XAMS:EPIC ASZ CCYC CVII KAHC DWAC IPOF PBAJ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
109 Old Branchville Road, Ridgefield, CT, USA, 06877
Website
https://www.fastacq.com
FAST Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Chatham Asset Management, Llc 10 percent owner 26 MAIN STREET, SUITE 204, CHATHAM NJ 07928
Michael Lastoria director C/O VELOCITY ACQUISITION CORP., 109 OLD BRANCHVILLE RD, RIDGEFIELD CT 06877
Glazer Capital, Llc 10 percent owner 250 WEST 55TH STREET, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019
Paul J Glazer 10 percent owner 250 WEST 55TH ST, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019
Kevin Michael Reddy director 3 MINETTA STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012
Kimberly Grant officer: Chief Strategy Officer 150 WEST CHURCH AVENUE, MARYVILLE TN 37801
Alice Elliot director C/O BARFRESH FOOD GROUP, INC., 8530 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 450, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90211
Ramin Arani director C/O LIVEXLIVE MEDIA, INC, 920 SUNSET BOULEVARD, SUITE #1201, WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069
Todd Higgins officer: Chief Operating Officer 3 MINETTA STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012
Garrett Schreiber officer: Chief Financial Officer 3 MINETTA STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012
Sandy Beall officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer 3 MINETTA STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012
Fast Sponsor, Llc 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization 3 MINETTA STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012
William Douglas Jacob director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer 3 MINETTA STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012
Sanjay Chadda director 3 MINETTA STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012
Steve Kassin director C/O VELOCITY ACQUISITION CORP., 109 OLD BRANCHVILLE RD, RIDGEFIELD CT 06877