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FTE Networks (FTE Networks) Predictability Rank


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What is FTE Networks Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FTE Networks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

FTE Networks Predictability Rank Related Terms

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FTE Networks (FTE Networks) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » FTE Networks Inc (AMEX:FTNW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XKRX:109080 ROCO:8176 TSX:AJX HKSE:01063 XKRX:052460 TSXV:SIM SGX:QS9 OSTO:TAGM B SGX:A31 ASX:NUH OSTO:ALCA WTT HKSE:08465 XKRX:038950 XKRX:035460 ZMTP ASX:SAS TSE:6634 XKRX:081580 XKRX:028080
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
237 West 35th Street, Suite 806, New York, NY, USA, 34108
Website
http://www.ftenet.com
FTE Networks Inc is a US-based company which acts as a provider of international and regional telecommunications and technology systems and infrastructure services. It also offers managed information technology, telecommunications services, subscriber-based services and staffing solutions through its wholly-owned subsidiaries. The services provided by the company include engineering consulting, design, installation, maintenance, and emergency response in various categories including cabling, equipment installation and configuration, rack and stack, wiring build-outs, infrastructure build-outs, fiber cable splicing and testing. The company manages its business into two segments namely Telecommunication and Staffing. The majority of the company's revenue comes from Telecommunication segment.
Executives
Irv Rothman director 3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
James E. Shiah director 2 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Christopher Ferguson director 1866 LEITHSVILLE ROAD, SUITE 223, HALLERTOWN PA 18055
Michael Palleschi director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 1464 PALMA BLANCA CT., NAPLES FL 34119
Henderson J Sherman Iii director PO BOX 34749, LOUISVILLE KY 40232
Richard C Mills officer: President C/O POMEROY COMPUTER RESOURCES INC, 1020 PETERSBURG ROAD, HEBRON KY 41048