What is First Wave BioPharma Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
First Wave BioPharma Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
First Wave BioPharma (First Wave BioPharma) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
777 Yamato Road, Suite 502, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 33431
First Wave BioPharma Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company specializing in the development of targeted, non-systemic therapies for gastrointestinal diseases. It is advancing a therapeutic development pipeline populated with multiple clinical-stage programs built around its two proprietary technologies-niclosamide, an oral small molecule with anti-viral and anti-inflammatory properties, and the biologic adrulipase, a recombinant lipase enzyme designed to enable the digestion of fats and other nutrients.
Executives
| James Sapirstein |
director, officer: President and CEO |
1517 SAN JACINTO, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Sarah Romano |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
271 WAVERLY OAKS ROAD, WALTHAM MA 02452 |
| Charles J Casamento |
director |
99 BELBROOK WAY, ATHERTON CA 94027 |
| David Andrew Hoffman |
director |
777 YAMATO ROAD, SUITE 502, BOCA RATON FL 33431 |
| Edward Borkowski |
director |
1500 CORPORATE DRIVE, SUITE 400, CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| Mary Theresa Coelho |
director |
52 SUNRISE PARK ROAD, NEW HAMPTON NY 43017 |
| Alastair Riddell |
director |
C/OAZURRX BIOPHARMA,INC.760 PARKSIDE AVE, DOWNSTATE BIOTECHNOLOGY INCUBATOR,STE217, BROOKLY NY 11226 |
| Vern Lee Schramm |
director |
1300 MORRIS PARK AVE., BIOCHEMISTRY DEPT., BRONX NY 10461 |
| Gregory Oakes |
director |
760 PARKSIDE AVENUE, SUITE 304, BROOKLYN NY 11226 |
| James Pennington |
officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER |
25801 INDUSTRIAL BLVD, SUITE B, HAYWARD CA 94545 |
| Daniel H Schneiderman |
officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
760 PARKSIDE AVE. SUITE 304, SUITE 207, BROOKLYN NY 11226 |
| Ross Edmund Burke Jr. |
10 percent owner |
C/O JDJ FAMILY OFFICE SERVICES, P.O. BOX 962049, BOSTON MA 02196 |
| Johan M. Spoor |
director, officer: President and CEO |
500 BOYLSTON STREET, SUITE 1600, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Maged Shenouda |
director |
305 WEST 18TH STREET, APT 4B, NEW YORK NY 10011 |
| Pelican Partners Llc |
10 percent owner |
PO BOX 2422, WESTPORT CT 06880 |
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